rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Softs Report 07/13/2020


Bookmark and Share

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2020 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Production 15,000 15,060 14,994-15,296 15,995
Soybean Production 4,135 4,167 4,133-4,382 4,125
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Yield 178.5 * 178.9 178.0-181.0 178.5
Soybean Yield 49.8 ** 50.1 49.8-52.8 49.8
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2019-20
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,248 2,286 2,200-2,403 2,103
Soybeans 620 589 535-635 585
Wheat 1,044 1,042 1,010-1,053 983
2020-21
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,648 2,728 2,525-3,010 3,323
Soybeans 425 443 355-572 395
Wheat 942 959 875-1,006 925
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 312.0 315.7 311.8-320.5 312.9
Soybeans 99.7 99.5 98.0-101.0 99.2
Wheat 297.1 297.1 296.0-298.0 295.8
2020-21
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 315.0 325.6 310.0-340.0 337.9
Soybeans 95.1 97.7 94.7-107.6 96.3
Wheat 314.8 315.5 311.8-317.6 316.1
***
2020-21 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
All Wheat 1,824 1,855 1,826-1,885 1,877
Winter Wheat 1,218 1,249 1,227-1,285 1,266
Other Spring 550 548 529-564 N/A
Durum 56 59 52-65 N/A
2019-20 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 101.0 100.8 99.0-103.0 101.0
Soybeans 126.0 123.4 122.0-125.0 124.0
2019-20 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 50.0 49.9 49.0-50.0 50.0
Soybeans 50.0 50.0 49.0-51.0 50.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jul 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
20/21 19/20 18/19: 20/21 19/20 18/19: 20/21 19/20 18/19
Soybeans 425.0 620.0 909.0:161.58 159.41 148.41:362.52 337.14 360.55
Brazil na na na: 83.00 89.00 74.59:131.00 126.00 119.00
Argentina na na na: 6.50 9.00 9.10: 53.50 50.00 55.30
China na na na: 0.10 0.11 0.12: 17.50 18.10 15.97
Soyoil 2,055 2,020 1,775: 11.92 11.80 11.18: 59.04 56.85 55.67
Corn 2,648 2,248 2,221:182.45 171.19 181.05: 1,163 1,114 1,123
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.02:260.00 260.77 257.33
Argentina na na na: 34.00 37.00 37.24: 50.00 50.00 51.00
S.Africa na na na: 2.30 2.50 1.45: 14.00 16.25 11.82
Cotton(a) 6.80 7.10 4.85: 41.81 39.98 41.22:116.25 122.96 118.65
All Wheat 942 1,044 1,080:188.04 188.08 173.58:769.31 764.83 730.89
China na na na: 1.00 1.00 1.01:136.00 133.59 131.43
EU 27 na na na: 27.00 38.00 23.31:139.50 154.94 136.69
Canada na na na: 24.50 23.20 24.40: 34.00 32.35 32.20
Argentina na na na: 14.50 13.50 12.19: 21.00 19.75 19.50
Australia na na na: 17.50 9.20 9.01: 26.00 15.20 17.60
Russia na na na: 36.00 34.50 35.84: 76.50 73.61 71.69
Ukraine na na na: 17.50 20.50 16.02: 26.50 29.17 25.06
Sorghum 22.0 30.0 64.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 84.0 80.0 87.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 42.0 37.0 38.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 43.8 30.0 44.9: 44.89 41.69 43.71:502.63 495.23 496.63

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed higher as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas and as farmers planted less than expected area to Cotton at 12 million acres. USDA reflected these changes in its monthly supply and demand updates on Friday. USDA also trimmed export demand but left domestic demand unchanged. Ending stocks were lower and were also lower in the world data. Reductions in ending stocks were noted in the US and in importer nations. Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand. The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks. However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened. The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes. Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.57 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 38,138 bales, from 38,149 bales yesterday. ICE said that 16 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 436 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 6320, 6250, and 6110 December, with resistance of 6510, 6580 and 6680 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 203,786
: Positions :
: 33,182 17,862 40,733 42,564 129,484 74,722 7,933 191,202 196,013: 12,584 7,773
: Changes from: June 30, 2020 (Change in open interest: 9,147) :
: 2,934 -8,159 3,763 -3,728 14,417 5,381 697 8,350 10,717: 797 -1,570
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 8.8 20.0 20.9 63.5 36.7 3.9 93.8 96.2: 6.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 51 71 56 67 45 18 214 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Jun Jul
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 14.10 13.74 13.70* 12.19**
Harvested 9.99 11.61 11.35* 10.25*
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 882 823 825* 820**
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.20 4.85 7.30 7.10
Production 18.37 19.91 19.50 17.50
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 22.57 24.77 26.81 24.61
Domestic Use 2.98 2.50 2.80 2.80
Exports, Total 14.84 15.20 16.00 15.00
Use, Total 17.81 17.70 18.80 17.80
Unaccounted 2/ -0.09 -0.03 0.01 0.01
Ending Stocks 4.85 7.10 8.00 6.80
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 70.3 59.0 57.0 59.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 602 – 18 July 2020

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2020/21 Proj.
World
Jun 100.56 118.74 42.82 114.41 42.90 0.14 104.67
Jul 100.92 116.25 41.84 114.29 41.81 0.14 102.77
World Less China
Jun 63.31 92.24 33.82 77.41 42.78 0.14 69.05
Jul 63.92 89.75 32.84 77.29 41.68 0.14 67.40
United States
Jun 7.30 19.50 0.01 2.80 16.00 0.01 8.00
Jul 7.10 17.50 0.01 2.80 15.00 0.01 6.80
Total Foreign
Jun 93.26 99.24 42.81 111.61 26.90 0.13 96.67
Jul 93.82 98.75 41.84 111.49 26.81 0.13 95.97
Major Exporters 4/
Jun 41.83 56.79 1.81 32.04 22.88 0.02 45.50
Jul 42.03 56.52 1.81 32.03 22.78 0.02 45.52
Major Importers 8/
Jun 48.47 39.35 38.56 75.60 2.53 0.11 48.14
Jul 49.16 39.14 37.59 75.50 2.53 0.11 47.74
================================================================================
WASDE – 602 – 28 July 2020

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is increasingly active in Brazil.
FCOJ was a little higher. Florida production is now estimated at 67 million boxes, unchanged from last month. California and US production was increased. Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice. Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand. Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand. There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers. The tree condition is called good. The Valencia harvest is almost over. Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. The harvest is increasingly active in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 September.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2019-2020 season is
5.14 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent
from the 2018-2019 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
67.7 million boxes (3.04 million tons), is unchanged from the previous
forecast but down 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida,
early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 29.7 million boxes
(1.33 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 2 percent
from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast,
at 38.0 million boxes (1.71 million tons), is unchanged from the previous
forecast but 8 percent below last season’s final utilization.

The California all orange forecast is 51.0 million boxes (2.04 million tons),
up 5 percent from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from last season’s
final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast, at
42.0 million boxes (1.68 million tons), is up 5 percent from the previous
forecast but unchanged from last season’s final utilization. The California
Valencia orange forecast, at 9.00 million boxes (360,000 tons), is
up 6 percent from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last season’s
final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.34 million boxes
(57,000 tons), is down 42 percent from the previous forecast and
down 46 percent from last season’s final utilization.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – July 10
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
7/4/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/4/2020 7/6/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 316.98 329.39 -3.8%
Retail/Institutional 6.07 6.14 -1.1%
Total 323.05 335.53 -3.7%
Pack
Bulk 0.43 0.11 272.9%
Retail/Institutional 0.36 0.66 -45.6%
Total Pack 0.78 0.77 1.6%
Reprocessed -0.78 -0.77 1.6%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.06 -0.05 10.2%
Imports – Foreign 1.02 0.35 190.3%
Domestic Receipts 0.06 0.03 98.4%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.02 57.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 317.68 329.08 -3.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.43 6.79 -5.4%
Total 324.10 335.88 -3.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.52 2.94 54.0%
Exports 0.06 0.19 -65.3%
Total (Bulk) 4.58 3.12 46.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.96 0.89 7.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.96 0.89 7.7%
Total Movement 5.54 4.01 38.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 313.09 325.96 -3.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.47 5.90 -7.4%
Ending Inventory 318.56 331.86 -4.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
4-Jul-20 6-Jul-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 135.98 141.83 -4.1%
Retail/Institutional 41.91 48.22 -13.1%
Total Pack 177.89 190.06 -6.4%
Reprocessed -95.88 -102.77 -6.7%
Pack from Fruit 82.01 87.29 -6.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -2.25 -1.07 110.5%
Imports – Foreign 123.29 242.48 -49.2%
Domestic Receipts 12.55 9.82 27.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.46 0.04 1213.2%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 18.28 3.56 413.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.98 1.83 8.2%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 506.36 532.94 -5.0%
Retail/Institutional 47.73 54.14 -11.8%
Total 554.10 587.08 -5.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 188.31 190.45 -1.1%
Domestic 10.92 16.53 -34.0%
Exports 199.23 206.98 -3.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 42.26 48.24 -12.4%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 42.26 48.24 -12.4%
Total Movement 241.50 255.21 -5.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 313.09 325.96 -3.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.47 5.90 -7.4%
Ending Inventory 318.56 331.86 -4.0%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 7, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,769 :
: Positions :
: 5,647 9,154 578 0 0 2,311 104 0 468 647 1,973 :
: Changes from: June 30, 2020 :
: 36 -58 3 0 0 56 -82 0 -61 61 -46 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.2 71.7 4.5 0.0 0.0 18.1 0.8 0.0 3.7 5.1 15.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 18 12 . 0 0 14 . 0 9 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and unchanged in London. Trends are still sideways in both markets. The Coronavirus has returned to the US to kill demand hopes. Europe is in much better shape battling the virus. The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the pickers are showing up for work. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult. Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.620 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 98.59 ct/lb. Brazil will get dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,303 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 95.00, and 92.00 September, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 106.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1120 September, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 September.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/07/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
165,447 92,729 55,292 19,250 13,330 1,185
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.0% 33.4% 11.6% 8.1% 0.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 52 39 14 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,243 53,752 14,456 5,383 6,189 16,901
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 32.5% 8.7% 3.3% 3.7% 10.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 36 14 11 14 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,300 4,342
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.8% 2.6%

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 324,076
: Positions :
: 31,642 55,485 84,709 128,779 157,951 64,386 17,393 309,516 315,539: 14,561 8,538
: Changes from: June 30, 2020 (Change in open interest: -1,812) :
: -240 -1,610 -2,053 -1,499 1,684 1,835 -24 -1,957 -2,003: 145 191
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 17.1 26.1 39.7 48.7 19.9 5.4 95.5 97.4: 4.5 2.6
: Total Traders: 449 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132 97 140 128 118 46 27 376 333:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on reports of an active Brazil shipping program for Sugar. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming more difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India. Brazil mills have shifter part of the crush to Sugar production due to less ethanol demand. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 327.00 October. Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 330.00 October, and resistance is at 350.00, 357.00, and 360.00 October.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/07/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
111,955 58,289 90,207 12,287 3,708 2,646
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.1% 80.6% 11.0% 3.3% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
117 41 42 12 3 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,231 1,951 3,814 4,014 2,011 4,944
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.0% 1.7% 3.4% 3.6% 1.8% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 8 14 9 6 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,730 2,674
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 2.4%

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,085,330
: Positions :
: 114,334 52,019 162,488 434,744 759,554 299,891 57,140 1,011,457 1,031,201: 73,873 54,129
: Changes from: June 30, 2020 (Change in open interest: 8,552) :
: 7,944 -8,450 6,150 -12,044 20,144 8,044 -3,533 10,093 14,311: -1,541 -5,759
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 4.8 15.0 40.1 70.0 27.6 5.3 93.2 95.0: 6.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 43 74 82 77 43 22 223 183:
——————————————————————————————————————-

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Jun Jul
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 2008 1783 1632 1772
Production 2/ 8999 8002 9005 9090
Beet Sugar 4939 4256 4965 5000
Cane Sugar 4060 3746 4040 4090
Florida 2005 2106 2105 2105
Hawaii 0 0 0 0
Louisiana 1907 1513 1800 1850
Texas 147 127 135 135
Imports 3070 4178 3097 3059
TRQ 3/ 1541 2203 1395 1580
Other Program 4/ 438 350 350 350
Other 5/ 1092 1625 1351 1129
Mexico 1000 1395 1301 1079
Total Supply 14077 13962 13733 13921
Exports 35 35 35 35
Deliveries 12231 12155 12230 12230
Food 12106 12050 12125 12125
Other 6/ 126 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 28 0 0 0
Total Use 12294 12190 12265 12265
Ending Stocks 1783 1772 1468 1656
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.5 14.5 12.0 13.5
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2019/20 Est.
Jun 1169 5230 89 4422 1113 953
Jul 1169 5282 89 4378 1233 929
2020/21 Proj.
Jun 953 6100 89 4575 1614 953
Jul 929 6100 89 4458 1731 929
================================================================================
WASDE – 602 – 17 July 2020

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Down 7.7% in 2H June as Ethanol Demand Fell
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of June compared with a year earlier, as demand for ethanol remained low because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Center-south mills crushed 42.9 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 7.7% from the same period a year earlier, according to industry group Unica. They produced 2.7 million tons of sugar, up 23.3%, and made 2 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 17.1%.
The production mix for the period was 47.4% sugar to 52.6% ethanol, compared with 37.1% sugar and 62.9% ethanol a year earlier.
Economic activity fell sharply since March because of social distancing measures spurred by coronavirus, though some states and towns began permitting certain businesses to re-open in June. Ethanol sales by the mills in the center south in June were down 11.4% from the same period a year ago, Unica said.
In the season from April 1 through July 1, mills in the region crushed 229.4 million tons of cane, up 5.2% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 48.8% to 13.3 million tons, and ethanol output fell 6.6% to 10 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through July 1 was 46.4% sugar to 53.6% ethanol, compared with 34.7% sugar and 65.3% ethanol a year earlier.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher in recovery trading. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is in much better shape in battling the virus. Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season. Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.088 million bags. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 441 contracts.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 September, with resistance at 2160, 2180, and 2220 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1500, 1660, and 1700 September.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/07/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
293,451 172,664 196,264 35,737 11,547 10,704
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 58.8% 66.9% 12.2% 3.9% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 45 46 13 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,324 19,258 13,394 2,431 708 37,249
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 6.6% 4.6% 0.8% 0.2% 12.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 18 12 13 7 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,948 4,327
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.7% 1.5%

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 248,509
: Positions :
: 18,908 42,653 65,423 95,753 109,733 55,242 21,120 235,326 238,929: 13,184 9,580
: Changes from: June 30, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,188) :
: -3,083 5,641 -1,014 6,059 -2,978 817 1,301 2,779 2,949: 409 238
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 17.2 26.3 38.5 44.2 22.2 8.5 94.7 96.1: 5.3 3.9
: Total Traders: 225 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 66 71 51 41 36 21 185 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2020 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy