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Phase 1 Done. The Corn & Ethanol Report 01/16/2020


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We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing and Retail Sales at 7:30 A.M., Business Inventories, Fed Bowman Speech and NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 A.M., EIA Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., $&8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M. Overall Net Capital Flows, Foreign Bond Investment and Net Low-Term Tic Flows at 3:00 P.M. On the Corn front and the Grain complex as a whole seems less bullish on the U.S.-China Phase 1 Trade Deal even with the roaring Stock Market. With South America poised to have another bumper crop and the passion of the delicate talks with China, farmers are taking the position of show me you will fulfill your words with action. We did see elevator and farmer selling in this selloff the past few days. We will be watching fund activity in the coming days. In the overnight electronic session the March Corn is currently trading at 382 which is 5 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 387 ¾ to 381 ½.

On the Ethanol front yesterdays report showed Ethanol inventories rose 3% to an all-time-record high reached a little more than two years ago. The supply increased for the second consecutive week up 544.000 barrels in the week ended Jan 10th to 23.006 million bbl, a 15-week high while 2% below a year ago according to DTN News. In the overnight electronic the February contract is currently trading at 1.300 which is .033 lower. The trading range has been 1.325 to 1.300. The market is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.278 and 1 offer @ 1.339 with 8 contracts traded and Open Interest at 361 contracts.

On the Crude Oil front the market is trying to gather its legs try to get back and push through $60 a barrel. There is a lot of fundamental bullish news that could have one say the lows are in, and the futures market will realize this abominable snowman soon. In the overnight electronic session the February Crude Oil is currently trading at 5782 which is 1 tic higher. The trading range has been 5839 to 5756.

On the Natural Gas front we have the weekly EIA Gas Storage and the Thomson Reuters poll with 16 analysts participating estimate withdrawals ranging from 102bcf to 87 bcf with the actual 95bcf draw. This compares to the one-year withdrawal of 152bcf and the five-year average draw of 194bcf. Weather forecasts are calling for the Arctic Blast to lift shortly and move to the other side of the globe creating a warm February which sold off the market big-time. In the overnight electronic session the February Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.130 which is 1 cent higher. The trading range has been 2.142 to 2.115.

Have a Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn 

 



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About the author


Mr. Daniel Flynn is a trader and analyst with a strong background in the fundamental and technical analysis of Grain and Energy markets.

He started his career in the summer of 1981 as a runner on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange floor, shortly after graduating from Leo High School in Chicago. He learned the futures and options business from the ground up and has proved his commitment and ability to the industry ever since.

Dan's daily newsletter, The Corn & Ethanol Report, gives a unique insight and perspective into these market sectors, covering various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Dan is regularly interviewed by global media outlets on his insights and forecasts.

Dan provides his customers with not only a thorough understanding of the markets and the issues surrounding them, but also how to approach daily risk management in the markets they trade.

Contact Daniel Flynn: (800) 769-7021 or at dflynn@pricegroup.com

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