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Stock Index Futures Traders Focusing on Earnings


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January 16, 2020

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher, with S&P 500 and Dow futures at new record high, as traders focus on company earnings.

Retail sales in the U.S. increased 0.3% on a monthly basis in December, which was in line with market expectation and also matched the previous months upwardly revised reading. Retail sales, excluding autos, were up 0.7% when a gain of 0.5% was anticipated.

Initial jobless claims remain at historically low levels, coming in down 10,000 to 204,000 in the week ending January 11. Economists expected jobless claims would be 216,000.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserves January manufacturing index was 17.0 when 4.0 was estimated by analysts.

The 9:00 central time January housing market index is expected to be 75 and the 9:00 November business inventories report is expected to be down 0.1%.

I anticipate U.S. stock index futures will continue to trend higher in January.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency is steady following the release of the European Central Bank's minutes of its monetary policy meeting in December.

The ECB said there had been solid upward movement in underlying inflation.

The British pound is a little higher, but is likely to trend lower longer term, as it is becoming more likely that the Bank of England will lower its key lending rate this year.

The Canadian dollar is higher after it was reported that the Automatic Data Processing Canadian December employment report showed a gain of 46,200, which compares to the 30,900 increase in the prior month.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are lower, as flight to quality longs continue to be liquidated in light of yesterdays signing of the U.S.-China trade deal and the bearish influence of higher stock index futures.

Michelle Bowman of the Federal Reserve will speak at 9:00.

There is a 57% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate at its December 16, 2020 policy meeting. Yesterday the probability was 57%.

Interest rate market futures are likely to trade broadly sideways in the longer term, although the flight to quality influence will likely reemerge from time to time.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

March 20S&P 500

Support 3290.00 Resistance 3311.00

March 20 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.770 Resistance 97.100

March 20Euro Currency

Support 1.11770 Resistance 1.12200

March 20Japanese Yen

Support .91050 Resistance .91380

March 20Canadian Dollar

Support .76550 Resistance .76800

March 20Australian Dollar

Support .6904 Resistance .6950

March 20 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 158^0 Resistance 158^30

February 20Gold

Support 1548.0 Resistance 1562.0

March 20 Crude Oil

Support 57.50 Resistance 58.75

March 20Copper

Support 2.8500 Resistance 2.8950

Contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.


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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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