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Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express

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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or

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E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2952, down 1.50

Fundamentals:The tape is quiet ahead of the opening bell with U.S benchmarks coming in marginally. Yesterday, we said this rally is hitting a point of exhaustion; after last weeks Fed green light and bull-flag breakout higher, this isnt where you press the gas.Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloombergs Closing Bell yesterday to discuss this healthy consolidation among other topics. Todays economic calendar is jam-packed with data and Fed speak and patience at this level should pay off. With no less than five speakers, NY Fed President Williams kicks things off at 7:45 am CT but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell at noon CT. He is expected to stay the line today when discussing the economic outlook and continue to pave the way for a cut at the July 31st meeting. In fact, with the odds of a cut fully priced in, the probability for 50 basis points has ballooned to 40.5%. This market does not want to see data that is too strong, that begins pricing-out these cuts, however, we cannot see recessionary-like reads either. Case Shiller Home Price Index is due at 8:00 am CT, CB Consumer Confidence is the highlight at 9:00 am CT and New Home Sales is also released then. Richmond and Dallas regional data is due at 9:00 am and 9:30 am CT.

In the headlines, other than the G-20 Summit, there are three topics traders should keep a pulse on. Developments with Iran after President Trump issued an executive order targeted sanctions on Irans supreme leader and Foreign Minister. FedEx and Micron both release earnings after the bell today. AbbVie agreed to buy Allergan for $63 billion.

Technicals:Price action has been drifting lower ever so slightly since Friday mornings spike to a new record high. Overall, this market is due for a healthy consolidation lower and we are seeing the potential beginnings of such. We maintain that if price action opens the intraday session above our pivot in the S&P at 2949.50-2953.50, the bulls will attempt another rally. However, below here, the consolidation lower should continue to major three-star support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Crude Oil (August)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 57.90, up 0.47

Fundamentals:Crude Oil is holding just below the 58.22 swing high set yesterday after President Trump issued individually targeted sanctions against Irans supreme leader and Foreign Minister. Iran responded saying this was the end of diplomacy. Without any fresh this morning on that front, Crude remains elevated but not extended its range. Inventory data will become the focus with analyst expectations trickling out through the day and the private API survey released at 3:30 pm CT.Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloombergs Closing Bell to discuss a number of topics including Crude and the current path of least resistance to 60.50.

Technicals:Yesterdays pullback to 56.75 pinged our major three-star support perfectly and gave bulls the buy opportunity theyve been waiting for after this run-up through Sunday night. With yesterdays settlement back above the ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (August)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1418.2, up 18.1

Fundamentals:Gold ripped higher overnight marking the fourth session in a row, all after the Federal Reserves dovish statement last Wednesday. With the odds for a 50-basis point cut on July 31st ballooning to 40.5%, and the Dollar slipping below a key level of technical support; as we said last week, this is an ideal landscape for the metal. Adding fuel for this rally are escalating tensions and uncertainties in the Middle East. Todays calendar is packed and will play a key role in helping Gold hold these gains or encouraging a healthy consolidation. NY Fed President Williams did not comment on policy this morning, it looks as he will leave that to Fed Chair Powell at noon CT. Case Shiller Home Price Index underwhelmed at 8:00 am CT. Consumer Confidence is the highlight this morning at 9:00 am CT and New Home Sales is also due then.

Technicals:Gold is up 10% this month and now testing the August 2013 high at 1432.9. We imagine that such a straight shot will run into a bit of technical headwind as shorts have already covered, and FOMO buyers have already chased. We see no reason for Gold to fail here and do not like shorting the metal but are simply exuding caution. In fact, our Trade Alerts Options program released an options strategy to get long exposure in Gold yesterday, contact our trade desk to discuss. This market can pullback to ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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