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The 6 to 10 day forecast still looks a little warmer and wetter than normal for the Heartland. It's great for things in the ground and growing and not so good for things in the ground needing to be harvested.

The USDA released crop progress and placed corn at 96% with Ohio at 80%. The Buckeye state is having severe issues and it's showing with basis levels surging. But, this too, shall pass! Soybeans are at 85% planted nationwide with Ohio at 65%. Winter wheat harvest is only at 15% compared with the average of 34%. Quality went from 64% good to excellent to 61%. Another week to ten days of moisture impeding harvest and the likelihood for severe problems increases dramatically!

How do we feed the bull today? Respect for first notice day, end of the quarter and the USDA reports on Friday might keep trading muted for a few days. Europe getting a little warmer and drier might keep the world from getting too comfortable with wheat supplies. Warm and wet in the US might keep the trade from getting too bulled up in corn and soybeans as these conditions are very good for crop development as we need growing degree units and normal rains will help, not hurt.

Spreads might see a few days of excitement as fund longs usually exit the nearby before first notice day. Things will get very interesting in July when the deliverable elevators and end users battle it out over deliverable stocks. The trade talk is to anticipate few, if any deliveries in wheat and corn while beans might see some healthy numbers hitting the street.

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
888 391 7894 toll free
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sbruce@walshtrading.com
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Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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