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Grains Report 04/17/19


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DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Thursday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed April 1 101.8 100.4- 102.2
Placed in March 103.8 97.9- 106.0
Marketed in March 96.8 95.7- 98.4
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
April 1 in March in March
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.9 104.2 96.8
Allendale Inc. 101.6 104.0 98.4
HedgersEdge 101.9 104.6 96.9
Linn Group 100.4 97.9 96.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.9 104.1 96.8
NFC Markets 102.0 104.1 95.7
Texas A&M Extenstion 102.2 106.0 96.8
U.S. Commodities 101.4 102.0 97.3

DJ U.S. February Grain Imports-Apr 17
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Feb 2019—- —-Jan 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 1,132,923 2,498,095 1,848,373 4,075,662
spring wheat 4,014,948 8,852,960 5,882,184 12,970,216
winter wheat 1,187,790 2,619,077 19,353,470 42,674,401
wheat/meslin 29,647,752 65,373,293 56,405,753 124,374,685
TOTAL WHEAT 35,983,413 79,343,426 83,489,780 184,094,965
barley 4,935,128 10,881,957 10,810,723 23,837,644
oats 1,625,829 3,584,953 901,303 1,987,373
corn 28,629,859 63,128,839 94,761,203 208,948,453
other corn 3,980,880 8,777,840 9,227,945 20,347,619
TOTAL CORN 32,610,739 71,906,679 103,989,148 229,296,071

DJ U.S. Feb Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Apr 17
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Feb 2019—- —-Jan 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 35,857,058 79,064,813 31,576,096 69,625,292
palm kernel oil 34,633,771 76,367,465 28,180,928 62,138,946
palm oil 156,072,835 344,140,601 129,586,100 285,737,351
soybean 39,234,782 86,512,694 26,641,642 58,744,821
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 13,311,027 29,350,815 14,080,361 31,047,196
rapeseed oil
edible 122,678,591 270,506,293 149,701,855 330,092,590
rapeseed oil,
inedible 726 1,601 429,708 947,506

DJ U.S. February Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Apr 17
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Feb 19 Jan 19 Dec 18 Feb 18(*)
soybeans 4,577,364,744 4,828,433,634 4,105,844,610 4,212,824,966
soyoil 41,656,639 100,271,958 77,342,510 82,143,237
crude 29,230,159 86,321,768 67,662,426 68,827,952
refined 74,299 169,398 216,942 142,344
other/1 12,102,016 13,586,229 9,108,195 12,955,662
hydrogenated 250,165 194,563 354,947 217,279
cottonseed oil 2,614,588 4,651,061 2,053,259 4,225,212
crude 70,727 118,664 217,837 459,752
refined 1,914,644 3,135,512 629,377 2,055,188
other/1 629,217 1,396,885 1,206,045 1,710,272
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 20,412 19,958 19,958 114,823
sunseed oil 2,729,318 3,519,202 4,059,947 4,239,208
rapeseed 26,690,888 16,346,307 27,511,384 14,847,275
rapeseed oil 6,513,300 7,900,562 8,197,428 9,413,099
crude 942,103 3,482,348 4,010,875 4,174,571
refined 5,571,197 4,418,214 4,186,553 5,238,528
linseed meal 0 197,821 151,185 259,721
cottonseed meal 11,456,804 8,760,794 8,749,661 8,607,330
soymeal 787,412,007 1,043,006,958 818,505,061 928,305,283
soymeal/flour 200,862,800 304,115,298 243,343,307 188,459,131
soymeal hulls 7,924,000 39,109,000 20,874,000 11,426,000
lard 1,007,426 1,242,287 1,600,916 1,580,264
edible tallow 9,121,219 9,339,102 8,775,604 10,994,187
inedible tallow 18,742,291 23,832,537 33,720,350 26,556,543
ch white grease 9,960 8,285 0 45,885
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Feb 19 Jan 19 Dec 18 Feb 18(*)
soybeans 168,187,637 177,412,745 150,862,416 154,793,231
soyoil 91,837,184 221,061,865 170,511,076 181,094,870
crude 64,441,481 190,306,955 149,170,141 151,739,686
refined 163,801 373,459 478,275 313,815
other/1 26,680,383 29,952,513 20,080,136 28,562,350
hydrogenated 551,520 428,938 782,524 479,018
cottonseed oil 5,764,181 10,253,836 4,526,662 9,315,000
crude 155,926 261,609 480,248 1,013,580
refined 4,221,068 6,912,622 1,387,539 4,530,915
other/1 1,387,186 3,079,605 2,658,875 3,770,505
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 45,001 44,000 44,000 253,141
sunseed oil 6,017,117 7,758,514 8,950,653 9,345,855
rapeseed 58,843,346 36,037,444 60,652,230 32,732,644
rapeseed oil 14,359,371 17,417,761 18,072,238 20,752,335
crude 2,076,982 7,677,264 8,842,467 9,203,355
refined 12,282,389 9,740,496 9,229,771 11,548,979
linseed meal 0 218 167 286
cottonseed meal 12,629 9,657 9,645 9,488
soymeal 867,964 1,149,707 902,238 1,023,271
soymeal flour/me 221,411 335,226 268,237 207,739
soymeal hulls 8,735 43,110 23,009 12,595
lard 2,220,995 2,738,774 3,529,416 3,483,886
edible tallow 20,108,849 20,589,199 19,346,898 24,238,038
inedible tallow 41,319,686 52,541,759 74,340,659 58,547,165
ch white grease 21,958 18,265 0 101,159

DJ U.S. February Grain Exports-Apr 17
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Feb 19 Jan 19 Dec 18 Feb 18(*)
Barley 5,489,650 7,286,770 5,964,000 2,785,905
Corn /1 3,616,868,000 4,665,800,000 4,345,190,000 3,768,720,000
Sorghum 304,705,000 117,137,000 149,277,000 718,448,000
Oats 2,646,264 1,892,365 2,511,816 3,321,475
Rye 46,000 121,000 20,000 30,000
Wheat /1 2,285,227,870 2,016,578,503 2,270,804,711 1,408,102,566
wheat flour /1 24,921,853 25,143,793 24,620,501 21,229,523
Malt 34,499,204 41,833,978 39,083,069 35,122,592
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Feb 19 Jan 19 Dec 18 Feb 18(*)
Barley 252,135 334,675 273,922 127,954
Corn /1 142,388,342 183,682,547 171,060,819 148,366,430
Sorghum 11,995,583 4,611,433 5,876,716 28,283,758
Oats 182,311 130,372 173,048 228,829
Rye 1,811 4,764 787 1,181
Wheat /1 83,966,889 74,095,815 83,436,934 51,738,381
wheat flour /1 549,433 554,326 542,789 468,031
Malt 76,057,739 92,228,150 86,163,433 77,432,074
1/Includes commercial and donated.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower on ideas of weak demand in the world market. Minneapolis remained the stronger market as US panting delays contrasted fears of a dramatic increase in planted area to Spring Wheat in Canada. Canada and China continue to have weaker trade relations due to the political struggle over the Huawei executive that could be deported by Canada to the US to face fraud charges. The US Spring Wheat planted area was projected to be significantly down in the coming year, but not enough to offset the potential increased area in Canada. The US weather has featured snow in Spring Wheat areas, but beneficial rains in Winter Wheat areas. Ideas are that bumper yields are possible. The Kansas Crop Tour is just around the corner, and tourists are expected to see some very good crops. They will also see areas that did not get planted due to a wet Fall last year. The market is not real concerned about the lost acreage at this time due to the good conditions.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rains by midweek. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see showers by midweek. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light precipitation. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 436, 433, and 415 May. Support is at 442, 440, and 427 May, with resistance at 453, 456, and 465 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 397, 390, and 353 May. Support is at 412, 409, and 406 May, with resistance at 422, 429, and 435 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 513, 495, and 494 May. Support is at 521, 518, and 515 May, and resistance is at 531, 537, and 539 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading. Planting progress has been more sporadic to the north due to cool and wet conditions, but some planting has been done. Producers in Texas and Louisiana reported some impressive rains over the weekend that will help flush the crop and aid in germination. The crop in these areas seems to be off to a good start. The market seems content to trade in a wide trading range for now and this implies that somewhat higher prices are possible over the next few weeks. The domestic market is using price breaks to extend forward coverage as the mills push to own Rice into the next harvest. Prices have been firming in Texas due to good demand for limited supplies. Much of the Rice is moving to Mexico. Prices have been firm in Arkansas due to a lack of producer selling as they wait to get the next crop planted. Some in the trade are disputing the planted area estimates from USDA. They think the planted area will be less in part due to the weather but mostly due to the prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1041, 1034, and 1022 May, with resistance at 1064, 1070, and 1078 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.44 8.34 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.94 8.93 0.00
Brokens 8.11 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on fund selling and forecasts for improving weather starting in a couple of weeks. Ideas continue that the current wet and cold weather in the Midwest could create planting delays, but no one seems concerned. USDA showed that planting is off to a slow start, and forecasts for frequent periods of precipitation and mostly cool temperatures could mean more delays to getting the crop planted. Most producers did little or no fall preparation so many still need to apply fertilizers and other chemicals before starting to plant. The crop could be planted late unless the weather improves soon, but forecasts call for more systems to develop over the next couple of weeks and for temperatures to remain cool. Warmer and drier weather is in the long-term outlook after the next couple of weeks. Argentina has been offering at equal or cheaper prices than the US and the Brazil Winter Corn crop is being planted under mostly good conditions. Some parts of the Brazil growing area is turning too dry and it could be that the dry season is starting early. Yield potential could be reduced if the dry season comes before pollination, which is still several weeks away.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 355, 351, and 348 May, and resistance is at 364, 366, and 367 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 303 and 316 May. Support is at 291, 284, and 280 May, and resistance is at 299, 302, and 312 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling tied in part to improving weather forecasts. It is still cold and wet in the Midwest, but forecasts call for improved conditions in the next couple of weeks. There are also demand concerns due to the weakening Real and the ability for Brazil to offer at cheaper levels. The Chinese Ag Ministry said over the weekend that about 18% of the hog herd has been lost so far. That will mean less demand for Soybeans in the world market, but much more demand for pork or hogs. Some suggest that the total losses of hogs are equal to or greater than the combined production in North and South America combined. It is an indication of the very strong demand potential from China for hogs and pork and products and also an indication that Soybeans and Meal demand could be significantly less in the coming year as China works to eradicate the disease and then repopulate its herds. The Soybeans demand could take several years to recover as it will take time to rebuild the herds. Export differentials from the US and South America have been under pressure for this reason and also as the South American crop is now available. Prices are a little lower now in Brazil than in the US despite a lack of farmer selling in Brazil. Farmers do not like the price and are worried about the fate of the Real given the current politics and are holding the crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 881, 879, and 867 May. Support is at 883, 882, and 872 May, and resistance is at 895, 902, and 908 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 298.00 May, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 316.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2820, 2760, and 2710 May. Support is at 2860, 2840, and 2830 May, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2950 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly lower again yesterday. It was a narrow range trade. Prices had been supported for most of the session by Chicago and the Canadian Dollar, but could not hold at the end. Traders hope that the Canadian government finds a way to cut a deal to get Canola sales and shipments to China flowing again. New crop months were a little higher on ideas that the current low prices could cause producers to look for other crops to plant instead of Canola this year. Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and the lack of demand from China and expect stocks data to show higher supplies in the coming months. Palm Oil was higher again and moved away from the test of the recent contract lows. Data on exports so far this month was positive. Demand could remain strong as prices are cheaper on a relative basis to Soybean Oil. Short term trends are now sideways.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 449.00, and 446.00 March, with resistance at 459.00, 462.00, and 467.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2150, 2130, and 2100 July, with resistance at 2200, 2220, and 2250 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Significant precipitation is likely tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April +52 May +165 May +81 May +21 May +2 May
May +51 May +81 May +26 July
June +41 July +65 July +24 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
April
May -19 May
June +35 July -21 July +47 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
LOCATION SPOT PRICE BASIS CONTRACT CHANGE
Par Region 446.70 -9.00 May 2019 up 0.60
Track Thunder Bay 464.50 10.00 May 2019 dn 1.20
Track Vancouver 474.50 20.00 May 2019 dn 6.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 545.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May 545.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 557.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 562.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 550.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May 550.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 562.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 567.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 510.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 465.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,100 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 142 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1355)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 125,008 lots, or 4.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,339 3,346 3,310 3,315 3,335 3,325 -10 75,764 119,006
Jul-19 3,419 3,419 3,379 3,379 3,396 3,409 13 44 322
Sep-19 3,434 3,447 3,417 3,420 3,432 3,428 -4 46,430 100,040
Nov-19 3,454 3,454 3,454 3,454 3,420 3,454 34 2 40
Jan-20 3,411 3,422 3,404 3,412 3,413 3,413 0 2,768 35,960
Mar-20 – – – 3,414 3,414 3,414 0 0 12
Corn
Turnover: 616,990 lots, or 11.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,865 1,868 1,861 1,864 1,858 1,864 6 70,090 479,924
Jul-19 1,892 1,896 1,886 1,887 1,886 1,891 5 35,970 311,176
Sep-19 1,912 1,917 1,903 1,904 1,907 1,908 1 486,204 1,315,742
Nov-19 1,935 1,939 1,928 1,928 1,929 1,932 3 98 1,088
Jan-20 1,950 1,954 1,943 1,944 1,944 1,947 3 24,562 190,392
Mar-20 1,955 1,955 1,943 1,943 1,945 1,947 2 66 2,182
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,771,090 lots, or 46.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,555 2,555 2,524 2,526 2,545 2,534 -11 151,280 413,810
Jul-19 2,567 2,571 2,545 2,549 2,567 2,560 -7 31,346 205,474
Aug-19 2,601 2,618 2,594 2,598 2,617 2,600 -17 782 1,494
Sep-19 2,633 2,639 2,607 2,614 2,636 2,621 -15 1,535,220 2,150,254
Nov-19 2,661 2,664 2,633 2,640 2,663 2,643 -20 452 3,576
Dec-19 2,681 2,681 2,681 2,681 2,708 2,681 -27 8 204
Jan-20 2,709 2,715 2,682 2,688 2,713 2,696 -17 51,954 140,854
Mar-20 2,689 2,694 2,679 2,691 2,711 2,689 -22 48 520
Palm Oil
Turnover: 406,992 lots, or 18.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 4,436 4,466 4,424 4,456 4,428 4,444 16 48,992 175,136
Jun-19 – – – 4,560 4,560 4,560 0 0 32
Jul-19 4,678 4,712 4,678 4,712 4,720 4,694 -26 4 46
Aug-19 – – – 4,680 4,704 4,680 -24 0 0
Sep-19 4,650 4,680 4,642 4,670 4,644 4,660 16 347,898 478,624
Oct-19 – – – 4,748 4,748 4,748 0 0 12
Nov-19 – – – 4,764 4,764 4,764 0 0 18
Dec-19 4,866 4,866 4,866 4,866 4,886 4,866 -20 8 14
Jan-20 4,742 4,772 4,736 4,770 4,738 4,758 20 10,090 77,688
Feb-20 – – – 4,738 4,720 4,738 18 0 0
Mar-20 – – – 4,808 4,808 4,808 0 0 0
Apr-20 – – – 4,808 4,808 4,808 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 327,292 lots, or 18.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,388 5,412 5,386 5,412 5,396 5,396 0 57,018 206,548
Jul-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 14
Aug-19 5,608 5,628 5,560 5,628 5,574 5,572 -2 64 36
Sep-19 5,544 5,570 5,544 5,568 5,550 5,556 6 263,362 700,144
Nov-19 – – – 5,656 5,656 5,656 0 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,736 5,736 5,736 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,690 5,702 5,674 5,694 5,682 5,684 2 6,848 54,530
Mar-20 – – – 5,870 5,868 5,870 2 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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