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Field reports of corn getting into the ground in Missouri, Iowa and southeastern Nebraska but any ground to the west or north still appears to be too wet to work. There appears to be a sense that when the weather turns that we'll have the ability and fortitude to plant about 5 million acres of corn each day and all will be well if this happens around May 1. The prospective plantings report did suggest that we might see an increase in plantings in the western corn belt yet, this is where the wet weather is hindering field work. If we have wet weather in the forecast next week the likelihood for acreage loss could be taken very seriously. Spring wheat and oat seeding is impacted and we might see some acreage losses in these crops. Weather delays get more serious next week.

First notice day against the May contracts is on April 30 and registered deliverable stocks as of April 16 are 170 contracts of wheat, 1533 corn, 1079 beans and 2 KC wheat. Yet, there are many more bushels in deliverable channels which might get registered and deliverable with a wave of a wand. The sense on the street is that even with the recent rally in basis levels for corn and beans which may have come because of weather problems and traffic issues we could see healthy numbers of corn and beans coming out while wheat is uncertain.

We are closed on Friday for observance of Good Friday. Weather might be the most important factor facing the grain market when we reopen Sunday night/Monday morning. Moisture in the forecast might be considered to be bullish to corn and bearish to wheat and beans.

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
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Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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