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The Nemenoff Report 11/19/2020


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Financials:  As of this writing (6:30am) December Bonds are up 19 overnight at 173’04 and up2’00 for the week, 10 Yr. Notes up 3 at 138’09 up 16 for the week and the 5 Yr. up 2 at 125’07 down 4 for the week. Yields are down for the week with the 2 Yr. down 1 basis point at 0.17%, the 5 yr. brown 4 at 0.39%, the 10 Yr. down 8 at 0.85% and the 30Yr Bond down 13 at 1.58%. Bonds topped out the week yesterday at 173’15 the breaking to 172’20 before rallying to present prices after the announcement of the closing of New York City schools Trumping the news of the Moderna virus vaccine. I feel that ultimately the vaccine will win out and the economy will grow slowly through 2nd quarter 2021 and heat up after that. This should push the 10 year yield over 1.00%.

Grains:  December Corn is down 5’6 at 420’0 up6’4 for the week, January Beans down12’2 overnight at 1163’4 up 17’0 for the week and Wheat down 2’6 at 595’4 down 4’0 for the week. Harvest being just about finished good export demand and good growing conditions in S. America resulted in a volatile week which saw Beans make a high of 1189’2 before breaking to current levels. I remain friendly to grains and feel we will see new highs as the market gains some upside momentum as Commodity Funds increase already near historic record long positions.

Cattle:  Yesterday December Live Cattle closed67 lower at 110.65 down175 for the week and March Feeder Cattle down 227 at 136.90 down 470 for the week. Technically the market formed resistance at 111.80 in LCZ and 140.00 in FCH. On the downside I expect the gap in March Feeders from 135.57-136.22 made November 9th to be filled with the possible break to the 132.50-133.50. Levels. I will be a seller on rallies. Cattle on Feed report tomorrow.

Silver:  December Silver is 39 cent lower at 24.05 and 21 cents lower for the week after seeing prices form resistance above 25.00 earlier in the week, near term support is 22.50. Volatility remains high with long term support at 17.00-18.00.

S&P:  December S&Ps are currently 7.00 lower at 3558.00 up 2.00 for the week. The prospect of a vaccine coming on the market initially by the end of the year and available for everyone by next spring should out weigh the near term shut down of schools, restaurants, bars etc.

Currencies:  December euro is down 1.1839 up 34 for the week, the Yen down 15 at 0.9619 up 107 for the week, the Pound down41 at 1.3273 up 103 for the week and the Dollar Index up 24 at 92.25 down 23 for the week. I am covering all short biased Dollar positions.

Please reach out to me if you’d like to learn more about my strategy or get my entry levels.

Marc



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About the author


Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc began his career as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Marc Nemenoff quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the CME and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations & Advertising, and Orientation & Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included: Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Contact Marc Nemenoff: (800) 769-7021 or at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com

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