rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Turner’s Take Podcast | Soybean Oil Closes Above 2016 Highs


Bookmark and Share
Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 255

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast

In this podcast we go over why the grain and oilseed markets will continue to be elevated for the rest of the year and well into 2021.  We look at the export pace and why the USDA will most likely increase exports for corn and soybeans and decrease ending stocks. We also talk about soybean oil and why it is the most bullish market in the grain and oilseed complex.  If you want to know more then take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Exports

Below is a table for export sales progress.  The highlighted areas show how current US exports for corn and soybeans are outpacing the USDA estimates according to the WASDE report.  Corn and soybean exports are so strong that we expect the USDA to increase old crop corn exports by at least 200mm bushels and 50 to 100mm bushels for soybeans in the coming WASDE reports.

Below the Export Sales table I also have an updated Turner’s Take corn and soybean supply and demand table.  For soybeans you will notice we don’t have enough available stocks to meet the current pace of exports.  Stocks are already tight. We are on pace to export 2.8 billion beans and the USDA has us pegged at 2.2 billion.  Ending stocks are already sub 200mm so at best we can export 100mm unless prices get so high the crush comes down.  The crush tends to be highly inelastic so most price rationing usually is done at the export level. I’ve included the 2013-2014 marketing year when soybean ending stocks were sub 100 and a stock/usage ratio of 2.66%!  Prices ranged $12 to $15.50 during that period.  If South America has sub trend production and demand stays strong, I think we will see “beans in the teens”.

As for corn, an extra 200 to 400mm bushels of exports brings the corn carryout between 1.5 and 1.3 billion bushels..  That would suggest front month corn trades in the mid to high $4s.  New crop trades to $4.20 or $4.30.  If the market should get close to $5 there are a lot of reasons for corn to hit resistance.  Feed corn can be substituted for feed wheat.  Ethanol margins are not favorable and corn usage declines.  Feed for livestock declines as meat production is discouraged.  There are a lot of reasons for corn to stall out the closer we get to $5 (if that should even happen).  For corn to go over $5 we need serious reduction in corn yields in South America this winter or the US this spring/summer.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

Export Sales Progress Analysis

Soybean Ending Stocks with Increased Export Pace

Corn Ending Stocks with Increased Export Pace

Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil closed above the 2016 highs today.  Vegetable oil is tight around the world as Palm, Sun, and Canola are in short supply.  Soybean Oil is the cheapest and most plentiful alternative currently in the global vegetable oil market.  We expect demand to be strong even as prices charge to 40 cents a pound and higher.  Next major resistance level on weekly and month charts is 45 cents per pound.  Call me at 312-706-7610 or email cturner@danielstrading.com for trade ideas.  We have been buying futures, buying calls, selling puts, and bull spreads. I have an idea to get long bean oil for any trader or hedger.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

Weekly Continuous Soybean Oil Chart

South American Weather

South American weather over the next one to two weeks does not look great.  There will be rain in the northern and central parts of Brazil but southern Brazil and Argentina sill look dry. The area overall looks to have less precipitation than normal for the next two weeks.  This should continue to be positive for the CBOT.

If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

Contact Daniels Trading

To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention .

Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the "risk disclosure" webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com.

+1 (312) 706-7610 Local / Int’l
+1 (800) 958-9470 Toll-Free

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2020 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy