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Market Insights: Thursday Look Back with Technical Outlook Oct 29 2020

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Thursday Oct 29th Look Back

John Caruso

Posted at 2:00pm CST

SP500: +1.82% to 3322.00 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: Long Term (2yrs) Trend is Bullish, Intermediate (6 month) Trend is Neutral, Near-term (3 weeks) is Bearish

-A large top, perhaps a double top has formed. Potential for much larger declines to come into year-end/early 2021.

-Momentum has broken negative

-Potential to revisit 3400, while holding negative momentum would likely be a gift for short sellers.

-Rallies should struggle to hold.

-3200 looks like hard deck support, followed by 3165.00

-20% correction would represent a downside target of 2870.00.

Gold: -0.49% to 1870.00 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Trend remains Bullish, 6 month trend remains Bullish, 3 week trend is Bearish

Momentum is negative, but now immediate oversold. Look for Gold to hold negative momentum even if it bounces back to 1900.00 oz. 1890-1900 would likely be a selling opportunity. Break of 1874 was a tipping point for near-term trend and momentum. 1856 is hard deck support, a break of this level could take Gold prices back into the 17 handle 1776.00 target for a longer-term buying opportunity if fundamentals remain supportive.

Disclosure: we signaled a long side, near-term trade today at 1870.00 for a chance at 1885.00-1892.00 target zone.

Silver: +0.30 to 23.41 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Trend: Bullish, 6 Month: Trend Bullish, 3 week: Trend Bearish

-Similar to Gold, momentum is now negative.

-If we bounce, itd be a high probability short bet.

-A break of 21.70 would be bad and could revisit 19.66.00 oz

Bitcoin: +3.07% to 13,575 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Bullish, 6 month Bullish, 3 week Bullish

-upgraded chart, beginning to outperform across all asset classes

-Bullish momentum on weekly and daily time frames

-Not signaling OB on the daily

-Looking for break through 13,939 followed by perhaps a small correction phase

Oil: -1.13% to 36.26 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr Bearish, 6 month Neutral/Bearish, 3 week Bearish

-Break below 36.60 is a bad look

-Negative momentum, immediate oversold condition

-Failure to recapture 40.00 has tipped the chart Bearish

-Rallies into the sell zone 38.50-40.00 would be high probability bets on short side

-OPEC is an outlier, likely will extend production cuts, and news of a vaccine by year-end would be a positive development for oil demand

Dollar: +0.59% to 93.95 (2pm CST)

Technical Outlook: 2yr bearish, 6 month bearish, 3 week neutral

-immediate overbought today vs major foreign currencies

-a break of 94.74 would be significant in changing our outlook over the intermediate term

-a short sided trade set up is likely coming in the next day or 2

-we remain bearish of the USD

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About the author

John began his career 15 yrs ago at Wilshire Quinn Capital, a Wealth Management Firm based out of Los Angeles, California. John first began to interpret different market strategies and ideas as an individual investor at the tail end of his college years. By 2004 he was opperating one of the largest retail books at Wilshire Quinn Capital.  In 2006 John moved to Chicago based Lind-Waldock where he began to expand his knowledge and hone his trading skills in the futures industry. He joined RJO Futures in 2011.

John's focus is to identify and service the needs of each and every one of his clients and suggest investments based on those needs.  John has a very unique way of interpreting markets, focusing on broader economic trends based on growth and inflation metrics.  His technical study is also unique, which combines a proprietary market range calculation and charting trends across multiple durations.  

Contact Info:

John Caruso

Senior Market Strategist


Twitter: @JCarusoRJO

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