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The Nemenoff Report 10/29/2020


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Financials:  As of this writing (6;45am) December Bonds are 6 higher at 174’7 and up 0’29 for the week, 10 Yr. Notes unchanged over night at 138’26 up 0’11 for the week and the 5 Yr. Note up 0’00.5 at 125’25.0 up 0’04 for the week. Yields are as follows: 2 yr. Notes0,14% down 0.01 for the week, the 5 Yr. 0.34 down 0.03, the 10Yr. 0.78 down 0.06 and the 30 Yr. Bond at 1.56 down 0.09 for the week. The reclosing of schools and businesses due to Covid Virus resurgence has once again pushed treasury prices higher. The failure of congress to come to an agreement on a stimulus package kept treasuries from going even higher. As mentioned last week Bonds have support under 173’00 (low of the week in the low 172’00s). I now look for resistance above 175’11 as the election approaches and traders seek safe havens. Once again I see little opportunity at current price levels and will remain on the sidelines until after the election. The Fed seems set to keep rates near zero, DON’T FADE the FED.

Grains: December Corn is 3’0 lower at 398’4 down 16’0 for the week, November Beans down 4’0 over night at 1053’2 down 23’0 for the week and December Wheat down 6’6 at 602’0 down 26’0 for the week. The “virus”, falling equities and a stronger Dollar all contributed to a somewhat drastic sell off this week. Harvest continues at a good pace and yields per acre continue to look strong. The market will be looking to crop progress in S. America for direction for the next three months as we follow their growing season. I am on the sidelines until after the election.

Cattle:  December Live. Cattle closed 62 higher at 104.67 up just 10 points for the week. March Feeder Cattle closed up 147 points at 129.52 down sharply for the week. Last week’s Cattle on Feed Report. Showed on feed at 104%, placements 106% and marketings 106% of a year ago. The placement number was above expectations and should be considered long term. negative. I continue to have a negative bias due mainly to the economic collateral damage of the Covid virus.

Silver: December Silver is 60 cents lower at 22.66 and down $2.34 for the week. A stronger Dollar and sell off in equities took this market to new recent lows. I remain on the side lines. It will take a break below 18.00 to pique my interest.

S&P:  December S&Ps are 8.00 higher at 3271.50 after closing 100.00 lower yesterday and down nearly 150.00 for the week. To quote President Trump (not necessarily in the literal sense) Covid,Covid, Covid!  I continue to have a negative bias.

Currencies:  The Euro is down 33 at 1.1730, the yen up 21 at 0.9610, the Pound down 16 at 1.2981 and the Dollar Index up21 at 93.62. The Dollar and the Yen benefitted as safe havens as global markets sell off due to the increase of global rise in the spread of the pandemic. I am on the sidelines until after the elections. I retain a negative bias on the Dollar and the Pound.

Please reach out to me if you’d like to learn more about my strategy or get my entry levels.

Marc



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About the author


Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc began his career as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Marc Nemenoff quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the CME and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations & Advertising, and Orientation & Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included: Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc is also the author of The Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction. Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Contact Marc Nemenoff: (800) 769-7021 or at mnemenoff@pricegroup.com

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