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Strong Demand with Global Supply Issues Keep Grain Prices Higher

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 26, 2020.

Grain Markets remained stable overnight as drier weather around the world continues to hurt global grain production and strong demand keep prices near contract highs. Traders will continue to watch weather maps in South America, fund activity and additional grain export sales this week.

Last week, December corn futures were up 18.00 cents, November soybeans were up 36.75 cents, December wheat up 9.25 cents, December soymeal was up $15.40 and December soyoil was down 116 points.

USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT. Trade is expecting corn harvest at 73% complete (60% last week, 50% average). Soybean harvest expected at 87% complete (75% last week, 73% average)

CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed funds new net position long +218,825 corn contracts, long +231,892 soybean contracts, long +49,728 wheat contracts, long +34,941 live cattle contracts and long +42,058 lean hog contracts.

Private exporters reported export sales of 100,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Unknown during this marketing year on Friday. Given the fact this number is not equal to two cargoes we would suggest this was not a Chinese buyer.

Chinas customs ministry indicated 1.08 million tonnes of corn was imported in September. From January 2020 to September 2020, total corn imports now total 6.667 million mt. (72.5% over last year).

Cash cattle trade was sharply lower than the previous week with trades down to $104 and $106. The previous week ranged from $107 to $108. Last weeks cattle processing run was 0.4% over last year. The previous four weeks ran 0.9% over last year.

USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed On feed (as of October 1st) at 3.8% above last year (3.2% above last year was the average estimate). September placements at 5.9% over last year (2.5% above last year was average estimate). September marketings was 6.2% above last year (5.8% above last year was average estimate). This was a bearish report with now 4 months in a row of higher than last year placements.

USDA Monthly Cold Storage showed beef storage at 462.0 million lbs. (Allendale estimated 470.0 ml). Pork storage was noted at 466.5 million lbs. (Allendale estimated 467.7 ml).

Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down 1.37 and select up 0.32. The Feeder cattle index is 134.01. Pork cut-out values were down 5.59.

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Allendale Inc. was established in 1984 in a country grain elevator located in Crystal Lake, Illinois. The first-hand experience with agricultural and financial markets has worked with Allendale’s combined foresight, ingenuity and expertise to make it the successful firm that it is today. Allendale’s goal is to provide its customers the expertise and service they need to grow their agricultural businesses. Allendale’s staff is called on to provide their commentary for TV, radio and newswires on a daily basis.

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