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AgMaster Report 09/15/2020


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NOV BEANS

It’s one thing to rally $1.40 (865-1005) since the Aug WADSE Report but quite another to do so without correcting! In front of the Sept WADSE, we thought sure they’d be some profit-taking – and then after the neutral report, for sure,  the mkt had every excuse to correct but it didn’t happen – in either instance! The mkt has been energized by massive, almost daily Chinese buying and expected shrinkage in bean yields (USDA-51.9)! The Bears say this buying can’t continue and that the looming big harvest will blunt the current, near vertical rally – but the mkts inability to correct speaks volumes about its  latent strength!

DEC CORN

Much like Nov Beans, Dec Corn has had an uninterrupted upside ride (320-370) with the added plus of leaving an unfilled 3 cent gap on 8/24/20 – a very bullish indicator! Supportive fundamentals include flooding in China’s corn belt -threatening to sharply reduce their crop & stellar exports from China! Also, a weak dollar has made the US very competitive in the world mkt – finally the crop is shrinking from earlier record estimates – production – 14,900 (15,278) & yield 178.5 (181.8) – due to the “flash drought”! What’s ahead is US Harvest & SA planting – and weather issues in either hemisphere could further reduce global supply! Historically, corn prices are still within shouting distance of 10 year lows!

DEC WHEAT

The last two mkt days have been a little give-and-take – with the mkt losing about 5 cents off the Friday WADSE REPORT as World Ending Stocks came in at a record 319 (316) mmt but today Dec Wht gained that back – following Russian Wht higher! Overall the contract will need spillover support from corn & beans to advance higher.

OCT CATTLE

                Oct Cat has been locked in a tight range – with lower beef & cash prices & a bulky premium exerting pressure on prices but the resurgent Oct Hog mkt lending spill-oversupport!  The mkt will need a resumption of the pre-Labor Day demand in the form of restaurants re-opening – to sustain a new rally from here!

OCT HOGS

As you can see from the above chart, Oct Hogs have been on a real roller-coaster ride – sparked by the discovery of Asian Swine Flu in Germany! Immediately, South Korea & China suspended imports from the Germans – feeding speculation that the US would be the beneficiary of more exports! In the process, the contract jumped $7 (61-68) in a series of limit moves – but got ahead of itself backing off today several dollars!  Still China remains a huge buyer of our pork and this will resume hog’s uptrend!

 

 



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About the author


Mr. Moore’s commodity career unwittingly began when he was 5 years old, spending his summers working for his family farm near Quincy, IL.

Bill attended Cornell University, graduating with a degree in Civil Engineering and then studied at the University of Chicago for his MBA. Soon after graduation, he entered into the United States Marine Corps.

In 1975, Bill began working at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an Agricultural Specialist – trading corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs. In 2000, he moved to the Chicago Board of Trade to work for a futures brokerage firm. Then, in early 2011, he brought his business to The PRICE Futures Group where he deals exclusively with 1000 acre grain farmers, helping them to design their seasonal corn and bean hedging programs.

Contact William Moore: (800) 769-7021 or at wmoore@pricegroup.com

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