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Morning Grain Comments


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Below are some of the morning Grain Comments from my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite. I hope you find something of interest in reasoning. And if you have a chance, drop me a line with any sort of ideas on how I can improve what I publish. Drop me a line at commodityinsite1@gmail.com.

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grain complex

The grains did well yesterday. Soybean prices, though 9 cents off the high gained 31/2 cents. Wheat prices picked up 4 cents and corn prices were 1 higher. Do note, however, there was also strength seen with cattle, metals, petroleum, cotton and most tropical markets as well as stocks and bonds and the major commodity indexes. Grains did well yesterday and so did most all other markets as well.


This morning on the other hand, grains are mixed but most of the other markets are doing well again. In the grain complex, soybean prices are 4 higher but wheat 33/4 lower and corn down 13/4 a bushel. Crop ratings were as expected for corn, down 1% but soybeans experienced a 2% drop. The data is view price positive soybeans, neutral corn.


The coming corn crop is the 2nd largest in history and the soybean crop the 3rd largest. The corn crop will be so large that ending stocks will swell to their largest levels in 33 years. But both grains are also benefiting from Chinese buying that should begin to slow in September. And if Chinese buying begins to decline, grain prices per se should head lower. Thus, my lean for grains remains that of a bear.


I also firmly believe that most all markets including grains are being supported by the Fed's desire to spark inflation. There has been no period in the past 65 years where the Fed has been trying to spark inflation as they are doing now. And since March with all markets and August for grains, the Fed has done a great job of pushing markets higher.

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As I type furiously away, grains are all flashing red. The downside leader is wheat with prices 10 cents lower and change. Stats Canada raised their all wheat crop to 34.1 mmt. Tons versus 32.3 last year and that seems to be the force weighing on wheat. And with wheat in the ugly corn prices are 3 lower and soybeans down 7 cents for 2020 futures but only 1 lower for 2021. Thus, the bear soybean spreads are gaining ground.


The time now is 10:17 a.m. Chicago









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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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