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Today's Playbook - Blue Line Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 3372.25, up 49

NQ, yesterdays close:Settled at 11,280, up 219

Fundamentals:U.S. benchmarks are set to open higher, adding to yesterdays gains. A slate of economic data from China last night was largely better than expected with Retail Sales grabbing headlines after gaining 0.5% YoY, its first expansion this year. Industrial Production edged out expectations along with Fixed Asset Investment, however the latter was merely less of a contraction. From Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment improved better than expected for September. However, although a separate gauge, ZEW Current Conditions, printed better than expected it still showed a net of 66.2% believing economic growth will get worse over the next six months. Traders are leaning on the upbeat data, improving from dismal levels, and yesterdays deal-making news to carry the market out of Fridays weakness. As we have discussed many times before, markets focus on the rhetoric they want. In this case, they are ignoring fresh restrictions imposed by the U.S. on Chinese apparel, hair products and some technology due to forced labor. Furthermore, a video conference between the EU and China concluded yesterday with the EU also pressuring the communist nation on human rights and opening its market to foreign investments.

From the U.S., we look to fresh NY Empire State Manufacturing at 7:30 am CT along with Import/Export Price Index data. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 am CT. The Fed begins its two-day policy meeting and we look to further developments on Oracles potential partnership with ByteDances U.S. assets. There is a 20-year Bond auction at noon CT.

Technicals:Price action in each the S&P and NQ has grinded higher through the overnight and set to open above yesterdays high. Each is now testing key resistance with major three-star resistance overhead. The first level comes in at 3396.50 in the S&P and 11,403 in the NQ. The more critical points come at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlok, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.

Crude Oil (October)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 37.26, down 0.07

Fundamentals:Crude Oil is up more than 1% this morning as it largely ignores warnings from the IEA. The market is instead focusing on economic data from China that continues to improve from dismal levels, whereas the IEA cut its oil demand forecast by another 300,000 bpd in its Monthly Report this morning. They said a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and a weak economic outlook will weigh on global GDP and oil consumption. Price action is also ignoring Tropical Storm Sally being downgraded, the lingering threat of additional supplies being added from OPEC+, U.S. production stabilizing and early estimates pointing to another EIA build tomorrow.

Technicals:Price action struggled early at first key resistance at 38.00 although it is holding out above our Pivot which encompasses our momentum indicator and yesterdays close (as well as the previous three). Out above first key resistance is major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlok, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1963.7, up 15.8

Fundamentals:Gold and the metals complex are keying off better than expected economic data from China and a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar to gain early ground on the session. Overall, risk-assets are all higher and Treasuries are lower; Gold has largely ignored intraday action in rates, seemingly only concerned that they have remained in a confined range. NY Empire State Manufacturing was better than expected this morning and we look to Industrial Production at 8:15 am CT. It will be important to see how the Dollar responds to the data as we look to the conclusion of the Feds two-day policy meeting tomorrow.

Technicals:Price action is lingering at and flirting just above major three-star resistance at 1973-1976.6. Our momentum indicator trails the rally at 1969 and this will bring a line on the session that favors continued buying from the bulls to achieve a close above major three-star resistance. Such a close would encourage ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlok, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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