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Daily Grain Market Commentary


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Corn (December)


Fundamentals: Corn futures are little changed to start the week as developments over the weekend did little to aide the convictions of the Bulls and Bears. Crop progress will be released after the close, today. Expectations are for good/excellent ratings to come in near 73%, up 1% from last week and 6% above the 5-year average. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a net short position of 143,280 contracts.


Technicals: Corn futures finished last weeks trade in negative territory. for the fourth consecutive week. The RSI (relative strength index) comes in at 40.14, today. This is not yet oversold, though broad-based sentiment seems to be bearish as ever. The next level of support comes in from 320-322, this represents contract lows. A break and close below this pocket puts prices in uncharted territory, making it more difficult to find the next meaningful target. The Bears remain in control until the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes back above 330 -332 .


Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 349 -350***, 360-363 **** Pivot: 330-332 Support: 320-322**


Soybeans (November)


Fundamentals: Soybean futures are rallying to start the week as hopes for strong demand encourages the Bull camp. Crop progress will be released after the close, today. Expectations are for good/excellent ratings to come in near 73%, up 1% from last week and 6% above the 5-year average. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds are net-long 62,161 contracts.


Technicals: The market held trend-line support and the 50-day moving average last week, marking higher lows. On the flip side, we have been marked lower highs over the last month. This is creating a wedge (>) which could lead to a bigger directional move in the near future. Significant resistance comes in from 905 -911 , a breakout above this pocket could spur another wave higher. 4-star support remains intact from 866 -873.


Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 905 -911 **** Pivot: 886 -889 Support: 866 -873****


Chicago Wheat (September)


Fundamentals: September wheat futures are softer to start the week as some market participants see limited upside. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds are net-long 1,699 contracts. Crop Progress will be released after the close, today. Expectations are for spring wheat ratings to be unchanged, 70% good/excellent. Spring wheat harvest is expected to be roughly 10% complete, on par with the 5-year average.


Technicals: The market is forming a bit of a wedge, higher lows, and lower highs (>). This often leads to an inflection point, where we see a bigger directional move. Support remains intact, 517 -523. A break and close below this pocket could accelerate the selling and take us back near the technical and psychologically significant $5.00 handle.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish


Resistance: 546 -551 *** Pivot: 532-535 Support: 517 -523****, 496 -500***



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Call/Text/Email, Oliver with any questions.

Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938



Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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