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VIX (VX) Retesting 50% Fib Retrace of March Surge


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The VIX (VX) slid more than 8% yesterday after getting rejected at triangle resistance (on the 4hr and daily chart). Significantly, the VX is going into today's European morning testing the same triangles' support, and appears to be a day or so from triangle completion. Any daily close above triangle resistance (on the daily chart) the balance of this week will likely be followed in the several days after by a retest of downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart). Nevertheless, bulls should not rule out the possibility of the VX further weakening beyond the 50% Fib retrace of the March surge, with the 61.8% Fib a next key support.Congratulations to premium readers who profited fromthe March 17th warning of the pending slide in the VX, one day before its record high on the front month contractand fromthe analysis June 9th highlighting the looming completion of the descending wedge. The drooping daily Stochastics and MACD, combined with the bottomish weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD suggest any further weakness will likely be mild and limited to the next few days. I will look to go long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Monday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

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VIX (VX) Weekly/Daily/4hr

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Before the launch of Tradable Patterns , Darren Chu, CFA, served as IntercontinentalExchange | NYSE Liffe's country manager for Australia, India, and the UAE between July 2010 and January 2014, expanding his role to look after Liffe business development in APAC ex-Japan/Korea until his departure mid April 2014.  His primary remit was developing relationships with Liffe clients, prospects and partners in the buyside (traditional and alternative asset managers), proprietary trading (high frequency algo as well as manual, point and click traders), bank, broker (institutional and retail), commodity trader and ISV community.  Key futures and options promoted included European/London rate benchmarks such as the Euribor, Short Sterling, Gilts, London/European index futures including the FTSE and CAC, London soft commodities (Robusta Coffee, Cocoa, White Sugar), Paris (MATIF) markets (Milling Wheat, Rapeseed), and NYSE Liffe US markets with the MSCI EM, MSCI EAFE, gold/silver, Eurodollar, US Treasury and GCF Repo futures being the focus.

 

Previously, Darren was with the TMX Group | Montreal Exchange for 4 years, marketing Canadian futures and options across North America, London, Singapore and Hong Kong.  Darren also launched and managed CMC Markets Canada's Chinese marketing and sales team, along with educational offering.  On the academic trail, Darren has been a frequent guest speaker at Canadian universities as well as an author of content for 3 derivatives courses offered by Canadian Securities Institute and mandatory for licensing of Canadian derivatives industry professionals.

 

Darren can be reached at +65 8118 8840 or via email at darrenchu@tradablepatterns.com.

 

 

 

contributing author since 11/21/2017 

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