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Wheat - Just My Opinion

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Weekly Wheat Export Inspections 515.3 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected

The USDA is rating the US winter wheat crop at 52% GE (unch) vs. 52% expected vs. 63% year ago Harvested - 41% vs. 44% expected vs. 41% 5-year average

The USDA is rating the US spring wheat crop at 69% GE (-6%) vs. 75% expected vs. 75% year ago Headed - 36% vs. 45% 5-year average

As far as I could tell todays rally in the Chgo and KC wheat markets was all about Fridays break into new low ground being overdone. Basically todays rally reversed that break. The news of the day suggested harvesting is just about to get underway in the EU and the Black Sea areas. There appears to be a fair amount of interest in the global export markets. That should not be surprising given the idea that a decent winter wheat harvest should offer one decent bung opportunities. Wheat futures will be looking at the same considerations tomorrow as the other grain markets month end, quarter end, 1st Notice Day, Quarterly stocks (984 million bu. expected) and Acreage (All wheat expected at 44.718 million acres).

Advertised interior cash wheat prices run mixed depending upon the variety. Whichever the variety not much is getting sold. The SRW basis mostly steady but with a slightly firm undertone. The Gulf basis for SRW is quiet. Bull spreads were working in Chgo driven the flat price short covering and the unknown around 1sr Notice Day deliveries. The HRW basis clearly shows a weak undertone despite the lack of farmer sales. The export basis for HRW remains quiet yet steady. The nearby July/Sept spread suggests the possibility of deliveries while Sept forward spreads had a bullish bias.

Todays reversal of Fridays plunge is trying to suggest US wheat futures (Chgo & KC) may have gone low enough for the time being. Hopefully what the USDA has to say tomorrow will shed some clarity on this idea.

Daily Support & Resistance 6/30

Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.75 - $4.98

Sept KC Wheat: $4.25 - $4.48

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

Learn more about International Futures Group at

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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