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Market Commentary - Soy and Corn


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Commentary:

A few brief thoughts regarding the markets. There remains some unknowns certainly given the global climate. However, the Chinese are buying beans. Some of this is to restock, some is the push to expand hog production to fuel the crush. Regardless, the bean market has a couple near term pluses in addition to the purchases. The USDA 395 carry appears to be a bit friendly, also, the weather is a concern this time of year and will be watched. The market may want to build a bit more risk premium. The long term may be a bit different. It is my belief the bean acres will show expansion from the recent numbers. In addition, the export estimates could be questioned. The global stocks are more than ample. The point here is take advantage of rallies in old and new crop. The crush margins in the deferred could showdeclines through the year. Especially if the crushpace stays strong.Down time is a consideration, of course.

The corn is interesting. The current projected stocks are more than ample. The question I have, are the acres accurate? Is the yield estimate accurate? Certainly the weather looks good, but the assumption may not be reality. The trend has already been on an upward path for some years. The last thought is the funds. The current position is overloaded short. A spark could ignite a covering rally. I say could because a catalyst is needed.

As always quantify the risk.

Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Risk/Reward
Futures-
Options -

BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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