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Food for Thought


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Commentary: Looking at the current supply demand scenario and the USDA releasing numbers tomorrow. I have pondered what I am perceiving are some possibilities. First the soy exports may be a bit overstated. Second the acreage may well be understated by as much as 2 million acres. These are important numbers given the current global stocks. When I look at historical prices when stocks are in the current domestic and global range, we are overvalued. It appears to me that the markets believe we are in a new paradigm. I don't believe those things. It is my belief markets can sustain an irrational outlook, but revert to the price they should. When is the question. I am hoping the Chinese have a round of purchases that sends beans above nine (9.00).The corn, in my opinion, could be in exactly the opposite situation of beans. The domestic carry is expected to balloon to 3 billion plus. What if the current crop is overstated by three million acres? What if the current yield is expecting too great a jump? Lastly, what if the Chinese stocks need rebuilding? For disclosure, these are all thoughts and none have been proven a reality. If these thoughts are real then corn will at the least stay here. It could rally. In addition new crop corn would gain on beans. These thoughts are for discussion. Any trades need to be quantified for risk reward.

Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Risk/Reward
Futures-
Options -

BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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