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Are Grain Markets Ready for a Breakout?


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Corn (July)


Fundamentals: Weekly export sales this morning came in at 637,500 metric tons for 2019/2020, within the range of expectations, up 49% from the previous week, but down 19% from the 4-week average. Yesterdays weekly EIA ethanol report showed production increased 41,000 barrels per day and stocks dropped 700,000 barrels, to the lowest level since January.


Technicals: The market has done a great job defending the 320 area this week which has helped the market grind higher in the early morning trade. We can see higher lows and higher highs over the last month and a half which has continued to keep us upbeat, especially with the way funds are positioned. If we can achieve a breakout above technical resistance, we could see that spark a bigger short covering rally, regardless of near-term fundamentals.....Contact us for the FULL report!


Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish


Resistance: 330-333****, 343 -344 **

Pivot: 320

Support: 316-317 ***, 308 -310*** 298 -301 **


Soybeans (July)


Fundamentals: Weekly export sales came in at 495,200 metric tons for 2019/2020, down 23% from last week and 36% below the 4-week average. Recent purchases from China have renewed optimism for future demand, despite headlines earlier in the week that stated Chinese purchases of some US agricultural products would come to an end. We referred to those threats as a continuation of political rhetoric and jawboning in our interview with RFD-TV on Monday morning.


Technicals: Soybeans have crawled back to 4-star technical resistance, 857-861 , an inflection point for the market. We either fail and retest the low end of the range, or we see a conviction breakout and a swift move higher. We are hopeful for the latter but have tempered expectations.....Contact us for the FULL report!


Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral


Resistance: 857-861 ****, 877 -882 ***

Support: 829-834****, 818-821***, 808 ***, 791**


Chicago Wheat (July)


Fundamentals: Weekly export sales came in at 179,500 metric tons for 2019/2020, 14% lower than last week and 14% below the 4-week average. The USD has been weaker over the last week and a half, if that continues, that should bode well for commodities, like wheat.


Technicals: Wheat futures staged a rally yesterday and are getting follow through today. Resistance remains intact from 525-529. A breakout above this pocket would be bullish as the chart is starting to form higher lows and higher highs, with a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern coming into play. In yesterdays report we wrote: Our bias is Neutral, but if you want to be long here it may be worth a shot. A close below $5.00 and its time to take your medicine and look for a new setup......Contact us for the FULL report!


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 525-529****

Pivot: 512 -514

Support: 491 -494 ***


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Call/Text/Email, Oliver with any questions.

Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com and 312-837-3938


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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About the author


Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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