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Livestock Report


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Walsh Trading Daily Insights

Commentary

July Hogs gave back most of Thursdays gains as the futures market couldnt overtake resistance at the 50 DMA (57.04) on the continuous chart. The Friday high was just below the 50 DMA at 57.00. It was a quiet trading session as traders seemed to be eager for the Memorial Day week-end to start. Trading will not occur in the Livestock markets until Tuesday morning. The price action formed an inside candlestick highlighting the lackluster trade. Support on Tuesday is at 55.625, 54.775 and the 53.825. Resistance is at 56.10, 57.025 and then 58.25. Estimated Slaughter dipped lower on Friday to 380,000 from higher levels earlier this week but still slightly above last weeks 375,000. Last Years slaughter was 404,000. Saturdays slaughter is estimated to be 170,000. This is above last years Saturday slaughter of only 40,000. Total estimated slaughter for this week is 2,130,000 head, above last weeks 2,098,000, but still below last years 2,310,000. The Pork Cutout Index continues its fall from last weeks peak and is at 102.63 as of 5/21/2020. The Lean Hog Index continued was lower and is at 64.59 as of 5/20/2020. August Feeder Cattle attempted to rally but fell back at the end of the session and settled near the low at 128.80. Support is at 127.575, 125.90 and then 122.775. Resistance is at 128.875, 128.65 and 131.10. The Feeder Cattle Index dipped lower and is at 126.24 as of 5/21/2020. August Live Cattle drifted lower and settled at 97.325. Support is at 97.075, 96.10 and the 94.30. Resistance is at 98.125, 99.375, 100.275 and 101.625. Boxed beef cutouts continued its decline from its record levels. Choice cutouts fell 5.07 to 396.74 and select dropped 8.35 to 374.18. The choice/ select spread widened to 22.56 and the load count was 101. Slaughter levels are climbing and Fridays estimated slaughter is 102,000, above last weeks 91,000. It is still far below last years 120,000. Saturdays estimated slaughter is expected to be 56,000, above last weeks 50,000 and last years 40,000. Total estimated slaughter for the week is 555,000, above last weeks 499,000, but is still a long way from last years 647,000. The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: Thus far Friday trade was limited on light to moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle, Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Trade was inactive on light demand in Kansas. Not enough purchases in any regions for an adequate market test. The latest established market in the Texas Panhandle was on Wednesday with live purchases mostly at 120.00. In Kansas on Thursday live purchases traded from 115.00-120.00, with the bulk at 120.00. In Nebraska on Wednesday live purchases traded from 119.00-120.00. Dressed purchases on Thursday traded, from 175.00-190.00, bulk from 180.00- 190.00. In the Western Cornbelt on Thursday, live purchases traded from 114.00-115.00 with dressed purchases from 175.00-190.00, bulk at 190.00.

Trade Suggestion(s)

Risk/Reward

Futures N/A

Options N/A

For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursdays (except holiday weeks) and our next webinar will be on Friday, May 29, 2020 at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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About the author


Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading

I began my career in the Securities industry working as a runner on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange while I attended Pace University. I then started working for Salomon Brothers in their Government Bond Trading arena. After graduating from Pace University with a degree in Accounting, I transferred to Chicago and became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange utilizing my experience to execute trades and manage risk for institutional clients as a broker for Salomon Brothers on the trading floor. I then embarked to trade for my own account in the stock indices pits as a local before moving off the floor to aid and assist individual clients in their trading endeavors. I now work at Walsh Trading holding a series 3 broker’s license whose duties include being the firm’s Chief Market technician.

I understand that every client's needs are different, and I pride myself in tailoring my service to each client's unique circumstances and needs. Individual client experience, risk tolerance, and capital all play a role in how I approach the markets. I am involved in all markets using technical analysis to find opportunities. My approach is driven by the principles of capital preservation.

My trading philosophy is that if you can recognize and manage the risk, you have a better chance to be successful in trading. I advise clients to always use stops as money management in my opinion is the most important ingredient in trading commodities.

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