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MARKET UPDATE - GRAINS, MEATS, SOFTS


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MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
TRADES FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 17, 2020
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

EMOTION is your enemy more than
any market will ever be.

BEAN COMPLEX HEADED FOR NEW LOWS? Beans, bean oil and wheat are in the process of having a correction to their first wave up since their March lows. They will either hold or not. Corn never had a rally. Its rally attempt after its March low was a sideways event at best. It got nowhere fast while beans, bean oil and wheat actually had recognizable rallies from a technical standpoint. Corn just kept drifting lower. Meal had a very aggressive rally after its March low but has since taken out that low. Does that mean beans and bean oil will follow? Not necessarily. When meal made its major low in Feb. 2016, beans and bean oil had made lows earlier and held those lows in spite of meal continuing under pressure.

BEEF: Today both live and feeders were stopped by the same resistance that ended their previous rally. But this time both rallies are starting from higher levels plus other technicals have changed to a more positive stance. That increases the likelihood that they will not have the same response as seen with the previous failed rally attempt.

GOAL OF THE MARKET UPDATE: To give traders a technical explanation of market behavior with the goal to educate and better understand and trade the markets. What I convey to readers is not a personal opinion but what the markets are suggesting by their technical formations and action.

OTHER SERVICES AVAILABLE: Looking to improve your current trading arrangements? As your personal broker I offer full service to self-directed, a selection of clearing firms to choose from and several platforms designed to suit your individual needs.

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TRADE SUGGESTIONS: All trades suggested are for the day session only. I normally wait until after 7:30 a.m. to place suggested trades. I do not enter trades for the night session.

Buy July cocoa. Buy 23.05 stop. Protective stop 22.24. Potential projection 24.16. (Potential risk $810. Potential reward $1110). Margin: $1700.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On both the monthly and weekly charts cocoa continues to hold at the 22.00 long term support that has produced rallies in the past.
2. Both the weekly and daily charts have gaps above the market.
3. On the daily chart cocoa is suggesting the start of a second wave up since the March low.
4. The daily chart has a reversal bottom suggesting a trend change from down to up.
5. On the daily chart the 10 avg. is over the 20 avg. in spite of the selloff further suggesting the start of an uptrend.

GRAINS:

JUL CORN: The selloff has a potential projection to 312 but it formed a double bottom today at 325 on the daily chart. All other technicals on its daily chart are still negative. For one, the macd just switched to sell mode. This has produced more follow through selling in the past than seen so far this time. Bottom line the overall downtrend is still intact on all its charts without even an attempt near term to challenge it. Attempts at challenging the 10 avg. on the daily chart to change trend have been short lived unfortunately. Just watching.

JUL WHEAT: The current wave down has met projections on the daily chart at 528. Its 200 avg. support intersects there too. But the weekly chart is suggesting there is more to this selloff. On the daily chart a 61.8% retracement of the entire March rally comes in 5 cents under todays low. Just watching.

JUL BEANS: The sell signal continues to follow through. Keep stops at 869 3/4.
Position: Short 853 1/2 (4.15).
Projection: 820

JULY MEAL: It rallied up to its 10 avg. today and backed off. It is ahead of the rest of the grains in its selling process. That suggests near term it could have a more extended rally while the rest of the grains work on testing their March lows. Just closely to buy.

MAY BEAN OIL: It sold off again today. The low of the first wave up on the daily chart was 25.82. It needs to hold that low. Otherwise the near term uptrend on its daily chart is being threatened. Keep stops at 25.80.
Position: Long 26.65 (4.6).
Projection: 28.53

MEATS:

JUNE HOGS: Very narrow range as they continue to struggle with the 45.00 resistance. Not enough going on technically to suggest anything.

JUNE CATTLE: They triggered a buy today and rallied up to their 20 avg. I point that out because the previous rally reached that average and then backed off. But this rally has started from a higher level suggesting that average will be taken out this time supported by more positive near term technicals. That average intersects at 87.70 approximately. Keep stops at 82.75.
Position: Long 85.70 (4.16).
Projection: 93.32.

MAY FEEDERS: They triggered a buy today and rallied up to their 120.00 market resistance. That resistance stopped the previous rally too. This time they dont have any lower gaps to deal with to promote a selloff plus other technicals are more supportive. Keep stops at 113.47.
Position: Long 116.90 (4.16).
Projection: 127.00.

SOFTS:

JUL COCOA: The rally today filled the gap at 22.71 and the market did not back off suggesting there could be more to the rally and that the selloff is over with. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details.

JUL COTTON: It continues to close over its 20 avg. on its daily chart and did so again today. Also, for the first time, since failing it in January, the 10 avg. is once again over the 20 avg. Watching closely to buy.

JUL COFFEE: Still stuck in its range not showing much. The 10 avg. is now under the 20 avg. on its daily chart suggesting a selloff could occur. The macd is negative too. Best just to watch.

JUL SUGAR: It continues to hold the April low as it consolidates. The overall downtrend has not changed on its daily chart. Just watching.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources. Opinions are subject to change at any time and are a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts. The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. These recommendations are not a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed. From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.



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Trading is not easy. The two major comments I hear from traders is the lack of basic information from their broker to help them trade and that their broker does not spend enough time with them. In my thirty years of working with traders, I have seen all the common patterns that lead to trading failure. So my goal is to help my clients understand what they are doing, give them the information they need and the time they require. Even experienced traders need this. My strongest asset to you is my willingness to help and my experience.

If you do not have time to follow the markets, I do that for you too. My free Market Update gives trading suggestions as well as the technical reasons why. Emailed for timely receipt, you know what is going on while I do the work for you. By becoming my client, you will soon enjoy the convenience and continuity of service that every trader deserves. Join me today!

Toll Free Number:  888-301-8120; 312-277-0133.  jcrawford@zaner.com

BACKGROUND ... Thirty years experience as a commodity broker has given me an insight into the needs of traders that only comes with experience. Originally from Minnesota, I started my career as a stockbroker in New York but moved to Chicago, the center for the commodity industry. I have found that no matter where a client lives in the world, all traders have the same needs.

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