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Soy Complex Commentary


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Commentary:The soy came under some pressure today. The pressure stems from a couple thoughts. The USDA will release acreage estimates soon. The thought process is the bean acres could increase by 9 million acres. In addition, this recent rally could add 1-2 million more acres at the expense of corn. This is an idea floating around. The question is, will the current bean corn acreage ratio make that happen? In addition to the acreage concerns, the Brazilian exports are larger than was anticipated for March. The Argentinian strikes have not materialized. This allowed for meal inverses to give up today. At present the margins look healthy and will continue to offer incentive for a large crush pace. It seems logical that the long run will weigh on margins. This remains to be seen as they always seem to bounce back. The Argentinian meal exports were curtailed. This should start to pick up a bit past April. The oil share is approx 28%, approx 8% off recent highs. Will this be enough? Given global oil stocks one could make the case. I suppose the big question is blending rates after the drop in crude. There remain many questions that will be answered in the fullness of time. Whatever your view, exercise caution.

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BE WELL,
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
312-208-8836
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.

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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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