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Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary


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Corn (May)


Fundamentals: Corn futures gave back some ground yesterday as markets remain mostly range bound amid a slow news cycle. March option expiration may keep March futures pinned near the 380 handle, which is where a lot of the open interest is. The USDA is holding their annual outlook forum which starts today, we dont expect a lot of new substantive news to come of this. This mornings export sales report came in at 968,800 metric tons, 22% below last weeks number and 9% below the 4-week average.


Technicals: The range bound trade has kept our support and resistance levels intact. 380 -382 remains significant support, a break and close below here would likely take us to revisit the contract lows, 374 . Significant resistance comes in from 389 -393 , this pocket represents the top end of the recent range and the 50-day moving average. Its a big ask and we wouldnt hold our breath this week, but a breakout above that resistance pocket would likely spark a bigger short covering rally.


Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral


Resistance: 389 -393 ***, 398 -398 ****

Support: 380 -382 ***, 374 ****


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312-837-3938 Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com


Soybeans (May)

Fundamentals: May soybean futures managed to recover early losses yesterday on what was largely a technical trade. Export sales this morning came in at 644,800 metric tons, 8% below last weeks number but 2% higher than the 4-week average. The USDA is holding their annual outlook forum which starts today, we dont expect a lot of new substantive news to come of this.


Technicals: The market has traded the $9.00 handle for 11 of the last 12 sessions. We are smack dab in the middle of our risk range which keeps our bias at Neutral. If we had to choose a side to favor for the next two sessions, it would be the buy-side, that being tied to tomorrows option expiration. 914-917 is significant resistance, this pocket represents a key retracement along with other previously important price points. 880-883 is the recent lows.


Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 914-917****, 928-930 ***

Pivot: 898 -900

Support: 890-890 ***, 880-883****


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Call/Text/Email Oliver with any questions!

312-837-3938 Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com


Chicago Wheat (May)


Fundamentals: Weekly export sales this morning came in at 643,100 metric tons, 90% higher than last week and 10% above the 4-week average.


Technicals: May wheat futures looked like they were going give back all the gains from the previous session but managed to claw back loses and close near the highs of the day. The market is mixed in the overnight/early morning trade. We have had a Bearish bias for the better part of the last month, though we still like the sell side, the recent price action has us a little more cautious in the near term.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 562 -564 ***, 571 -575**, 590 ****

Support: 537-541***, 520-525***


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Call/Text/Email Oliver with any questions!

312-837-3938 Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com


Kansas City Wheat (May)


Technicals: Kansas City wheat futures are seeing some follow through pressure after blasting off earlier in the week. From a risk/reward standpoint, this is a spot to give the buy-side a shot, so long as prices can defend 480-483 on a closing basis.


Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 493 -497 ***, 507 -511 ****

Support: 480-483 ****, 465 -468 ***


Get our FULL report emailed to you daily!

Call/Text/Email Oliver with any questions!

312-837-3938 Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com


Cotton (May)


Fundamentals: Weekly export sales this morning came in at 350,900rb, a marketing year high; up 6% from last week and 15% higher than the 4-week average.


Techncials: May cotton futures made a run higher but failed to breakout above resistance. 69.72-70.20 is a pivot area for us, until we see consecutive closes above here, we believe the bear camp has a slight advantage. Support comes in near 67.50, a break and close below there could accelerate the selling and take us back towards the low end of the range from December.


Resistance: 69.72-70.20***, 72.28-73.08***

Support: 67.30-67.66***, 64.88-65.15****


Get our FULL report emailed to you daily!

Call/Text/Email Oliver with any questions!

312-837-3938 Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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About the author


Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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