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Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ


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Breakfast Report - Cocoa Sugar Coffee OJ

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Cocoa (May)

Fundamentals: Cocoa continues to come under pressure and has found itself at a critical trendline support level. This is a result of the declining Euro currency which should weigh in on future grinding numbers. This weaker data will show that demand is declining despite the declining production out of the Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Technicals: The swing target of 2950 seems to be fading away and the trend trader sell triggers of 2787 look like more of a reality. With an entry price of 2602 back on January 10th, the first level of support is at 2811 however keep an eye on the bottom line of the bull flag.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 2886***, 2935****

Pivot: 2787 Point traders would exit longs and head to sidelines

Support: 2787***, 2700****

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Sugar (May)

Fundamentals: Energy prices are starting to lend support as crude oil futures have jumped over the past seven trading sessions. We are still monitoring the small crop and tight supply leading to the bullish posture.

Technicals: The market is taking a breather after two explosive sessions. Keep an eye on 14.50 as your critical level of support. Trend traders are long since January 6th at 13.79 and their sell triggers are down at 14.37.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/ Neutral

Resistance: 15.29***, 15.50****

Key Pivot: 14.37 - Point traders would exit longs and head to sidelines

Support: 14.50***, 14.00****

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Coffee (May)

Fundamentals: with news that Columbia is launching a $64 million fund to help stabilize prices, coffee futures may find themselves consolidating that these levels.

Technicals: Coffee has had a wild range over the past 48 hours with nearly a 10 cent range. Use 115 as your resistance point and 105 as your support. If we see either of these technical levels broken we may see extensions in either direction.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 115***, 121****

Pivot: 115 - Spot where trend traders get long.

Support: 105***, 100****

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Orange Juice (May)

Fundamentals: The market is drafting higher on an uptick in citrus demand. We are positioning to the long side using option strategies. Currently we like selling short dated put options to purchase longer dated call spreads. Remember that when you sell a put its the equivalent of being long a futures so manage your risk appropriately.

Technicals: The market has formed a bull flag and looks to breakout above 103 resistance. Trend traders are long from February 11tth at 102.30 and their sell triggers are at 97.10.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 102.90***, 105****

97.10 - Point where trend traders would head to the sidelines

Support: 100***, 98.00****

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Good luck and good trading,

Phillip Streible

Chief Market Strategist

312-858-7303

Phil@Bluelinefutures.com

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.



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About the author


Phillip Streible is a Series 3 licensed Chief Market Strategist at Blue Line Futures and specializes in working with clients in developing futures and options strategies in the metals markets. As the Chief Market Strategist his goal is to show clients how to anticipate, recognize and react to bull and bear market conditions through the use of fundamental and technical analysis techniques that help them to define risk. With more than 16 years of experience working with clients, Phillip ran one of the largest retail commodities desks while at Lind-Waldock where he focused on metals, energies, currencies and agricultural markets. 

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