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TFM Sunrise Update - February 19, 2020

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Corn futures are up one day, but unable to muster follow-through momentum to the upside on a day-to-day basis. Futures slumped 1 to 2 cents overnight, possibly due to a retreat from yesterday's wheat rally. Expectations that exports could pick up and that farmer selling will remain slow on setbacks is providing underlying support. However, corn prices remain bound by a 10 cent trading range.


The soybean complex was mixed overnight with beans and oil down slightly, meal firm. Soybean futures are expected to trade two-sided this morning. Both bulls and bears have arguments, and the market seems content to consolidate as it did yesterday. Brazil's harvest was pegged at 21% complete as of last week compared to 36% this time last year. Agrural raised Brazil's 2019-20 production forecast from 123.9 mil tons to 125.6 mil. Also, NOPA pegged January soybean crush at a record high 176.94 mil bu which, in turn raised bean oil stocks to a 21-month high.


Wheat futures retreated 4 to 5 cents overnight to pull back to Chi and KC contract 20-day moving averages after surging above MA resistance in yesterday's rally. Growing concern of locust infestations in Africa and now Pakistan and India have caught the market's attention. In addition, ABARES updated their 2019-20 Australian wheat production forecast which is seen as a 12-year low.


Cattle futures are called steady to firmer on follow through after futures firmed yesterday. Expectations for China to buy beef is providing underlying support. However, China is not usually an aggressive buyer of beef, so market participants may be reluctant to step in and drive the market higher on this news alone.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher. Prices firmed yesterday, though also saw steep losses during the session. This may be the case again today as an outlook for stronger export sales in the weeks ahead is met with skepticism over China's logistics in moving pork product around the country given the challenges of dealing with coronavirus.

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