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BLUE LINE- MORNING EXPRESS

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E-mini S&P (March)

Last weeks close:Settled at 3381, up 3.50 on Friday and up 55.50 on the week

Fundamentals:The S&P and NQ each marched to new record highs during the Presidents Day holiday hours. This marked the tenth session in a row for the NQ. Just after the noon CT close, Apple warned it expects to miss sales guidance for the March quarter. Remember, these are expectations set only three weeks ago. The stock is down more than 3% premarket and stands as a reminder of the potential Coronavirus impact. Risk-sentiment has snapped back sharply from two weeks ago despite not seeing a shred of hard data and as many executives warn of a potential slump due to the outbreak that has now nearly killed 2,000 and infected more than 70,000. The announcement has sparked a minor, yet healthy, wave of risk-off. The chipmakers are getting tagged as well. Some names such as NVIDIA and Micron are down more than 2% but the SOXX ETF is down about 1.5%.

On the data front today, ZEW Economic Sentiment from Germany turned sharply lower and Walmart missed earnings. This February read from Germany is some of the first to begin factoring a reaction from the outbreak. As for Walmart, weaker than expected holiday sales dragged on their results and the watered-down expectations for 2020 dont yet digest any potential impact from Coronavirus. We now look to fresh February NY Empire State Manufacturing at 7:30 am CT. This number leads a string of manufacturing reads over the coming week and a half but could set the tone as to an early impact of Coronavirus.

Technicals:Price action turned lower last night in a healthy manner and we are welcoming a pullback. Given that the tape remained elevated through yesterdays holiday hours, our momentum indicators have yet to fully catch up with the slightly sharp decline. For this reason, the S&P can pop to major three-star resistance aligning with our momentum indicators in the S&P at 3378-3381 and in the NQ at 9615-9632.25 to also cover a gap from intraday Friday and still remain susceptible to waves of selling. However, decisive price action above those levels turns the tape bullish in the immediate-term once again. To the downside, strong support in the NQ has worked to buoy things at 9501.25-9537.50, watch for a move below here for tech to lead the way lower on the session.

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Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 3378-3381***, 3385.25**, 3392.50*, 3412***

Pivot: 3271.25-3275

Support: 3358.50**, 3347.25-3352.50***, 3337.50**, 3323.75***

NQ (March)

Resistance: 9615-9632.25***, 9650.75-9663.50**, 9717.75***

Support: 9501.25-9527.50***, 9409.50-9415.25***, 9330.75-9331.25***, 9150***

Crude Oil (April)

Last weeks close:Settled at 52.32, up 0.66 on Friday and up 1.77 on the week

Fundamentals:Crude Oil turned sharply lower overnight after Apple warned it expects to miss sales guidance. This was an ever-present reminder that the market has not seen any hard data to this point, and it is known that Crude Oil is stockpiling off the coast of China. German economic data followed by Walmarts miss has also weighed on the tape. Ultimately though, the hope of OPEC+ coming to the rescue is dissipating and maybe this is truly weighing on Crude Oil the most this morning.

Technicals:Price action is vulnerable this morning to continued waves of selling while below our momentum indicator at 51.80-51.90. The tape is currently nudging below first key support at 51.07 and this paves a path of least resistance lower to the psychological $50 mark.

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Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 51.80-51.90**, 52.32-52.56**, 53.15-53.38***, 54.20***

Support: 51.07**, 50.00-50.20**, 49.00-49.50****

Gold (April)

Last weeks close:Settled at 1586.4, up 7.6 on Friday and up 13.0 on the week

Fundamentals:Gold is back to the highest level since Sunday night February 3rd when China reopened for the first time in a week and began throwing massive amounts of liquidity to stabilize the risk-environment. All along, despite a recovery of 5.5% from low to high in the S&P, Treasuries held ground extremely well. Continued low rates works to buoy Gold and ultimately this has paved the way for the metal to capitalize on a day like this. A miss from German ZEW Sentiment and Walmart earnings have also each bid the Treasury market. We now look to NY Empire State Manufacturing due at 7:30 am CT, a very crucial February read.

Technicals:Gold decisively closed out above 1578.2-1579.5 on Friday and has extended to stick its nose out above 1587.9-1588.2. Our momentum indicator now aligns with 1587.9-1588.2 and continued price action above here is extremely bullish, however, we do have major three-star resistance, which has been our only major three-star resistance, at 1594.7-1598.5.

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Bias:Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 1594.7-1598.5***, 1615-1619.6***

Pivot: 1587.9-1588.2

Support: 1578.2-1579.5**, 1561.8-1562.8**, 1555**, 1542.8-1547.6****


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results



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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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