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Corn - Just My Opinion

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Weekly Corn Export Sales 968.8 K T. old crop vs. 700 K 1.200 M T. expected no new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

The recent push/pull (flip-flop if you will) continues. On January 30th March corn closed at $3.795. Since then we have closed three quarters of a cent below that level and 4 cents above that level. Last but not least we closed at $3.795 today. The average March corn close for the past 12 trading sessions is $3.8075; talk about a market going nowhere fast. Todays weekly export sales were deemed as okay as they came in midrange of expectations. Exports were 782.8 K T. - a marketing year high. Despite these relatively looking supportive numbers they were offset by a story suggesting Ukraine has sold 5-6 cargoes of corn this week to China.

The interior corn basis has taken on a mixed look as the processor basis east of the Mississippi River stays firm and west of the River appears to be easing. Locations along the mid-Miss and the Illinois River appear to be easing their respective basis levels. The Gulf, as far as Im concerned, is a non-event. Corn spreads saw some noticeable easing from recent strength.

Im not sure the corn market can get much flatter. Unfortunately I dont see anything out there at this point in time that will give us a sustaining rally. The Phase One agreement officially kicks in this weekend. Will China buy any corn from us next week? I dont think I should hold my breath. Next Thursday, Friday the USDA holds its annual Outlook Conference. The wild card there is if they make any demand changes from what was outlined in November. If you want to know what they outlined then let me know and Ill send you the spread sheet going out to 2029.

Daily Support & Resistance 2/14

March Corn $3.78 ($3.76) - $3.85

July Corn $3.87 ($3.85) - $3.94

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Contact me!Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at1.800.786.4475.

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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