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Softs Report 01/21/2020


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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly lower last week despite the strong up move on Friday. The weekly charts still show bullish trends and ideas are that further price gains are coming. A catalyst for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It did not really buy last week but will probably resume buying once the new trade deal is signed on January 15. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. The harvest is now about over and certified stocks are now leveling off.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see frequent periods of precipitation over the middle and latter parts of this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions except for some rain on Tuesday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.79 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 bales, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7240 March. Support is at 7040, 6970, and 6900 March, with resistance of 7170, 7190, and 7330 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 299,557
: Positions :
: 38,997 20,978 85,514 58,514 165,864 97,521 16,875 280,545 289,230: 19,012 10,327
: Changes from: January 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: 19,466) :
: 5,869 -4,035 8,770 1,515 15,528 3,557 -642 19,712 19,622: -245 -156
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 7.0 28.5 19.5 55.4 32.6 5.6 93.7 96.6: 6.3 3.4
: Total Traders: 312 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 69 97 54 63 51 22 263 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower for the week and the situation remains bearish. Futures are back to trading at the lower levels of the trading range on the weekly charts. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 95.00 March. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jan 17
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 1/4/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
1/4/2020 1/5/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 294.49 211.89 39.0%
Retail/Institutional 5.63 5.28 6.7%
Total 300.12 217.17 38.2%
Pack
Bulk 6.87 4.33 58.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.42 0.83 72.1%
Total Pack 8.29 5.16 60.7%
Reprocessed -2.96 -2.46 20.0%
Pack from Fruit 5.33 2.69 98.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.15 -0.18 -14.4%
Imports – Foreign 1.91 9.09 -79.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.09 0.25 -61.7%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.02 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.23 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.02 0.00 27184.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 300.52 222.92 34.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 6.11 15.5%
Total 307.57 229.03 34.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.46 3.22 7.5%
Exports 0.25 0.20 24.4%
Total (Bulk) 3.71 3.42 8.5%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.91 0.99 -8.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.91 0.99 -8.3%
Total Movement 4.62 4.41 4.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 296.80 219.49 35.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.15 5.12 20.1%
Ending Inventory 302.95 224.61 34.9%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
4-Jan-20 5-Jan-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 33.78 28.51 18.5%
Retail/Institutional 17.35 15.90 9.1%
Total Pack 51.12 44.41 15.1%
Reprocessed -26.26 -27.91 -5.9%
Pack from Fruit 24.86 16.50 50.7%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.88 -1.26 -30.6%
Imports – Foreign 25.25 49.30 -48.8%
Domestic Receipts 5.07 0.82 516.1%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.15 0.04 323.8%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 7.05 0.24 2898.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.30 0.21 42.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 356.41 287.15 24.1%
Retail/Institutional 23.17 21.81 6.2%
Total 379.57 308.97 22.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 55.86 64.13 -12.9%
Domestic 3.75 3.53 6.3%
Exports 59.60 67.66 -11.9%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 17.02 16.70 1.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 17.02 16.70 1.9%
Total Movement 76.62 84.36 -9.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 296.80 219.49 35.2%
Retail/Institutional 6.15 5.12 20.1%
Ending Inventory 302.95 224.61 34.9%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,300 :
: Positions :
: 10,018 7,256 1,300 0 68 1,014 8,538 426 1,912 1,099 2,984 :
: Changes from: January 7, 2020 :
: 483 -220 172 0 -2 51 901 230 -23 37 411 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.0 31.1 5.6 0.0 0.3 4.4 36.6 1.8 8.2 4.7 12.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 94 :
: 22 12 6 0 . 4 26 4 19 8 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week in New York and in London. The weekly charts suggest that further price weakness is possible. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas. The Brazilian crop is developing well but some exporters are out of previous crop supplies to sell. They might have found some more to sell in the last week as offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.115 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.834 million bags, from 6.923 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 105.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier weather this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 105.00 and 100.00 March. Support is at 110.00, 106.00, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 116.00, 120.00 and 123.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1280, 1260, and 1240 March. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1270 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 361,765
: Positions :
: 37,617 20,909 115,610 113,509 198,165 81,496 19,623 348,232 354,307: 13,533 7,458
: Changes from: January 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: -2,410) :
: -2,966 1,233 -5,192 1,057 -3,300 4,144 6,278 -2,957 -983: 547 -1,428
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 5.8 32.0 31.4 54.8 22.5 5.4 96.3 97.9: 3.7 2.1
: Total Traders: 428 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 128 94 151 122 117 49 24 377 324:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/14/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
124,220 76,190 57,884 12,439 14,728 1,184
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 61.3% 46.6% 10.0% 11.9% 1.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 59 42 11 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,516 29,094 5,569 3,915 566 11,237
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 23.4% 4.5% 3.2% 0.5% 9.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 30 19 12 11 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,170 3,958
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8% 3.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: The markets closed higher. The US Dollar has turned weaker and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
The markets closed higher. The US Dollar has turned weaker and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1450 March. Support is at 1420, 1410, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1460, 1470, and 1480 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 394.00, 387.00, and 383.00 March, and resistance is at 403.00, 406.00, and 409.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,324,060
: Positions :
: 168,979 132,992 316,426 423,683 744,402 316,782 77,268 1,225,870 1,271,088: 98,190 52,972
: Changes from: January 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: 142,002) :
: 28,812 -28,398 51,347 42,802 107,552 22,076 15,291 145,038 145,793: -3,036 -3,790
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 10.0 23.9 32.0 56.2 23.9 5.8 92.6 96.0: 7.4 4.0
: Total Traders: 294 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 47 103 89 83 41 24 273 218:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/14/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
103,318 32,725 75,273 11,384 1,248 4,895
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 31.7% 72.9% 11.0% 1.2% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
131 38 48 11 3 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
31,176 3,286 8,117 3,138 2,489 6,039
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.2% 3.2% 7.9% 3.0% 2.4% 5.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
35 6 11 9 9 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,845 1,971
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.7% 1.9%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York and mixed in London and made new highs for the move. It was an outside day down in London so maybe that market is about done with the current rally. Funds and other speculators were the best buyers in New York but were more two-sided in trading in London. Producers were sellers in both markets. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in southern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.944 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2750, 2730, and 2680 March, with resistance at 2810, 2840, and 2870 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1960, 1950, and 1930 March, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2060 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 14, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 334,664
: Positions :
: 48,253 35,504 104,623 94,456 161,445 72,201 22,616 319,533 324,187: 15,132 10,477 : Changes from: January 7, 2020 (Change in open interest: 13,219) :
: 871 -184 8,713 19 3,783 2,922 609 12,527 12,922: 692 297
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 10.6 31.3 28.2 48.2 21.6 6.8 95.5 96.9: 4.5 3.1
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 51 98 40 43 41 19 225 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/14/2020
Reportable Positions
=============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Processor/User Swap Dealers

OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
378,752 187,580 264,433 35,123 13,037 23,348
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.5% 69.8% 9.3% 3.4% 6.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 52 47 13 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
54,014 6,680 26,718 6,250 1,269 42,080
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
14.3% 1.8% 7.1% 1.7% 0.3% 11.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 9 21 15 13 27
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,639 1,188
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.3%



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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