rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Grains Report 01/16/2020


Bookmark and Share

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 17, 2020 15 Jan 14, 2020

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 16
For the week ended Jan 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 650.6 59.7 19584.9 17908.8 4624.6 179.9
hrw 205.5 60.0 7149.8 5578.8 1537.6 60.0
srw 23.9 -0.4 2124.5 2277.1 461.1 4.2
hrs 286.9 0.0 5584.2 5504.2 1383.1 44.8
white 133.9 0.0 3915.6 4128.8 1055.8 10.0
durum 0.5 0.0 810.9 419.9 187.1 61.0
corn 784.8 207.0 19301.3 32287.4 9867.0 1022.6
soybeans 711.5 0.0 30482.8 30369.1 7240.6 183.5
soymeal 375.2 0.0 5988.0 6909.7 2963.5 87.3
soyoil 36.2 0.0 464.4 405.9 144.2 0.5
upland cotton 232.9 14.5 11859.4 10878.8 7420.8 1017.5
pima cotton 34.3 0.0 388.1 467.2 207.8 35.3
sorghum 22.1 0.0 1129.4 476.6 514.1 0.0
barley 0.8 0.0 59.7 58.3 30.2 0.0
rice 29.2 0.0 2214.5 1907.5 719.7 0.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on stronger world prices. Chart patterns are still bullish in all three markets and all are looking forward to increased demand for US Wheat. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the problems in Russia with its crop. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. Black Sea prices were reported to be higher again yesterday. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation over the middle of the week and on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 595 March. Support is at 568, 566, and 557 March, with resistance at 579, 583, and 587 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 511 and 525 March. Support is at 493, 485, and 477 March, with resistance at 504, 510, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 565 and 579 March. Support is at 550, 547, and 542 March, and resistance is at 561, 563, and 566 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was near unchanged and saw almost no reaction to the trade deal with China. More important to the market will be passage of the USMCA deal by the Senate. Mexico is the largest buyer of US Rice and so the market wants the trade deal to succeed. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time and that has caused many to sell a little Rice into the market. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. Mexico might have bought 100,000 tons of Texas Rice yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1350 March. Support is at 1326, 1316, and 1307 March, with resistance at 1344, 1348, and 1356 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats moved lower. Some disappointment was expressed that the Chinese trade deal announcements did not include specifics and nothing about feed grains. Export demand has been disappointing and traders had hoped for positive news. Ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected and has been the main bullish force in the market this week. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 397, 398, and 407 March. Support is at 387, 382, and 380 March, and resistance is at 390, 392, and 393 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 317 and 319 March. Support is at 301, 295, and 288 March, and resistance is at 309, 316, and 318 March.

DJ US Ethanol Inventories Grows, Production Unseasonably High — Market Talk
11:36 ET – US inventory of ethanol has grown another 544,000 barrels to a total of 23.006M barrels, the EIA says Wednesday. This is the largest inventory reported by the EIA since late September. However, historically, ethanol inventories rise at this time of the year–and production, which rose by 33,000 barrels per day to a total of 1.095M barrels per day, is unseasonably high, according to data compiled by INTL FCStone. Corn futures on the CBOT showed little reaction to the report, likely due to trader preoccupation with the US-China phase one trade deal signing. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com, @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower. Soybean Meal was a little higher on spreading against Soybean Oil. It was a disappointing day for Soybeans due to the reaction to the trade deal announcements. There was nothing very specific in any of the news releases although China did say that purchases would come when the price was right and the demand was there. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused firm basis levels in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 180,000 tons of US Soybean Mel.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 911 and 884 March. Support is at 923, 918, and 916 March, and resistance is at 934, 936, and 939 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 299.00, 298.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 308.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3320 and 3190 March. Support is at 3290, 3240, and 3200 March, with resistance at 3410, 3440, and 3450 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybeans and on the China news. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was lower on news that India is reducing it buying from Malaysia due to a political dispute. Supplies could run short due to the demand and reduced production over the next couple of months. It was also lower on the outside markets especially in Chicago.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Plam Oil exports are now 585,251 tons, from 572,409 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 467.00 March, with resistance at 480.00, 485.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2880, 2860, and 2750 March. Support is at 2920, 2880, and 2850 March, with resistance at 3010, 3060, and 3150 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the south and east and near to below normal in the north and west.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +51 Mar +175 Mar +110 Mar +52 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +56 Mar +112 Mar +50 Mar
March +56 Mar +112 Mar +48 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 15
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Jan. 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, January 15.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 447.50 -34.00 March 2020 dn 1.10
Track Thunder Bay 482.80 7.00 March 2020 dn 1.40
Track Vancouver 495.80 20.00 March 2020 dn 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 762.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 762.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 760.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 727.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 765.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 765.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 762.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 730.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 762.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,030.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 230.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0620)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 129,014 lots, or 5.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,460 3,460 3,379 3,411 3,424 3,411 -13 70 1,258
May-20 4,125 4,144 4,073 4,094 4,122 4,103 -19 120,521 128,083
Jul-20 4,097 4,106 4,097 4,106 4,100 4,101 1 2 29
Sep-20 4,033 4,052 3,972 3,991 4,027 4,002 -25 8,159 16,912
Nov-20 3,866 3,866 3,820 3,832 3,860 3,836 -24 21 252
Jan-21 3,910 3,910 3,860 3,872 3,860 3,893 33 241 192
Corn
Turnover: 589,313 lots, or 11.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,877 1,900 1,876 1,897 1,878 1,887 9 59,453 221,807
May-20 1,925 1,946 1,923 1,946 1,923 1,935 12 455,532 821,648
Jul-20 1,948 1,971 1,948 1,971 1,949 1,962 13 1,298 5,027
Sep-20 1,973 1,993 1,970 1,992 1,973 1,984 11 70,754 195,156
Nov-20 1,985 2,005 1,984 2,003 1,987 1,996 9 259 1,735
Jan-21 1,973 2,019 1,973 2,014 1,987 2,006 19 2,017 1,676
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,113,341 lots, or 29.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,626 2,626 2,600 2,619 2,605 2,614 9 205,660 231,184
May-20 2,693 2,693 2,670 2,689 2,677 2,682 5 716,186 1,613,541
Jul-20 2,719 2,721 2,703 2,720 2,707 2,713 6 476 5,232
Aug-20 – – – 2,758 2,758 2,758 0 0 107
Sep-20 2,776 2,781 2,760 2,775 2,765 2,770 5 186,381 1,134,391
Nov-20 2,800 2,805 2,789 2,801 2,794 2,797 3 89 2,043
Dec-20 2,846 2,846 2,806 2,823 2,830 2,813 -17 77 206
Jan-21 2,810 2,825 2,805 2,821 2,830 2,816 -14 4,472 2,768
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,203,387 lots, or 13.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 6,498 6,552 6,498 6,526 6,540 6,524 -16 6 157
Mar-20 6,472 6,506 6,420 6,428 6,504 6,442 -62 49 492
Apr-20 – – – 6,228 6,284 6,228 -56 0 9
May-20 6,146 6,176 6,096 6,104 6,206 6,134 -72 2,137,462 619,056
Jun-20 6,014 6,014 5,976 5,976 6,048 5,994 -54 2 15
Jul-20 – – – 5,942 5,942 5,942 0 0 307
Aug-20 – – – 5,858 5,910 5,858 -52 0 7
Sep-20 5,822 5,852 5,782 5,796 5,876 5,818 -58 64,686 74,204
Oct-20 – – – 5,798 5,854 5,798 -56 0 4
Nov-20 5,858 5,858 5,708 5,708 5,776 5,758 -18 3 10
Dec-20 5,720 5,732 5,720 5,732 5,892 5,730 -162 52 91
Jan-21 5,902 5,902 5,664 5,680 5,892 5,686 -206 1,127 764
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 671,655 lots, or 44.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 6,654 6,724 6,604 6,604 6,758 6,664 -94 9 409
May-20 6,670 6,698 6,578 6,586 6,724 6,630 -94 618,302 578,231
Jul-20 6,596 6,596 6,552 6,552 6,736 6,572 -164 7 418
Aug-20 6,538 6,538 6,538 6,538 6,642 6,538 -104 1 1
Sep-20 6,550 6,586 6,476 6,500 6,610 6,518 -92 52,523 161,130
Nov-20 – – – 6,436 6,504 6,436 -68 0 211
Dec-20 – – – 6,552 6,644 6,552 -92 0 0
Jan-21 6,608 6,614 6,502 6,508 6,644 6,564 -80 813 672
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2020 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy