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Grains Report 01/15/2020


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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 16, 2020 217 Jan 14, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 16, 2020 113 Jan 14, 2020
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 16, 2020 9 Jan 14, 2020
SOYBEAN January Jan. 16, 2020 36 Jan 14, 2020

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Jan 15
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED JANUARY 15, 2020 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING DECEMBER 2019
————————————————————————
Dec-19 Nov-19 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 8 798 0 798
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 200
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 34 3,394 5,389 9,782
WHEAT HRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 698
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 100
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 R 299 R
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 3,593 R 11,777 R
CORN WHITE 26 2,595 7,884 152,593 R
CORN YELLOW 6,169 615,608 802,219 6,950,873
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 299
FLAXSEED 2 200 0 400
OATS 9 898 100 3,594
SORGHUM 258 25,747 32,631 140,308
SOYBEANS 1,956 195,194 202,674 3,098,899
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 29,837
WHEAT HRS 89 8,882 12,075 195,594
WHEAT HRW 1,868 186,410 112,864 1,497,307
WHEAT SRW 213 21,256 9,881 349,476
WHEAT SWH 5 499 11,077 22,253
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on news that Egypt had paid higher prices in its tender for Wheat. It paid about three dollars per ton more than had been seen previously, and this was a good sign for world price strength. Chart patterns are still bullish in all three markets and all are looking forward to increased demand for US Wheat. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. Black Sea prices were reported to be higher yesterday. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation over the middle of the week and on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 573 and 595 March. Support is at 566, 557, and 551 March, with resistance at 573, 576, and 579 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 511 and 525 March. Support is at 493, 485, and 477 March, with resistance at 510, 513, and 518 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 565 and 579 March. Support is at 550, 547, and 542 March, and resistance is at 561, 566, and 567 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on news that Mexico might have bought 100,000 tons of Texas Rice. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time and that has caused many to sell a little Rice into the market. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. Mexico might have bought 100,000 tons of Texas Rice yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1350 March. Support is at 1316, 1307, and 1297 March, with resistance at 1340, 1344, and 1349 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 15
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.56 9.29 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.23 9.53 0.00
Brokens 8.78 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed near unchanged and Oats moved a little higher. The main driver remains demand or rather the lack of identified demand over the short term. Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected and has been the main bullish force in the market this week. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 397, 398, and 407 March. Support is at 387, 382, and 380 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 317 and 319 March. Support is at 309, 301, and 295 March, and resistance is at 318, 320, and 324 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were near unchanged and Soybean Meal was lower. Soybean Oil was a little higher. It was a narrow trading range in Soybeans and for Soybean Meal. Soybean Oil did make new lows for the move. The US and China have reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods. A signing ceremony will be held in the US this morning and then new buying from China is expected. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused firm basis levels in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News: China bought 126,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 937, 936, and 934 March, and resistance is at 950, 954, and 956 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 299.00, 298.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 308.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3320 and 3190 March. Support is at 3350, 3290, and 3240 March, with resistance at 3440, 3450, and 3500 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybeans. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was lower on news that India is reducing it buying from Malaysia due to a political dispute. Supplies could run short due to the demand and reduced production over the next couple of months. It was also lower on the outside markets especially in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 and 500.00 March. Support is at 478.00, 476.00, and 473.00 March, with resistance at 485.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3060, 3020, and 3000 March, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3210 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the south and east and near to below normal in the north and west.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +51 Mar +175 Mar +110 Mar +52 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +56 Mar +112 Mar +50 Mar
March +56 Mar +112 Mar +48 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 14
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Jan. 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, January 14.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 448.90 -34.00 March 2020 dn 1.10
Track Thunder Bay 488.50 7.00 March 2020 dn 1.40
Track Vancouver 501.50 20.00 March 2020 dn 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 787.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 737.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 772.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 772.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 740.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 765.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 685.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,060.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 232.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0720)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 86,622 lots, or 3.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 3,349 3,397 3,349 -48 0 0
Mar-20 3,432 3,432 3,422 3,430 3,431 3,424 -7 13 1,269
May-20 4,142 4,145 4,105 4,130 4,118 4,122 4 83,427 127,906
Jul-20 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,093 4,100 7 1 28
Sep-20 4,031 4,100 4,014 4,035 4,032 4,027 -5 3,160 15,049
Nov-20 3,884 3,884 3,843 3,866 3,859 3,860 1 21 248
Corn
Turnover: 265,558 lots, or 5.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 1,820 1,811 1,820 9 0 0
Mar-20 1,876 1,883 1,875 1,877 1,880 1,878 -2 59,094 242,207
May-20 1,920 1,927 1,918 1,924 1,922 1,923 1 175,779 747,159
Jul-20 1,947 1,952 1,947 1,948 1,950 1,949 -1 590 5,240
Sep-20 1,971 1,978 1,970 1,973 1,973 1,973 0 30,067 191,959
Nov-20 1,989 1,989 1,985 1,987 1,987 1,987 0 28 1,738
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,406,472 lots, or 37.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 2,627 2,538 2,627 89 0 0
Mar-20 2,586 2,627 2,586 2,623 2,577 2,605 28 111,940 243,814
May-20 2,663 2,696 2,663 2,693 2,659 2,677 18 1,031,707 1,646,280
Jul-20 2,699 2,723 2,697 2,723 2,693 2,707 14 482 5,156
Aug-20 2,766 2,786 2,749 2,770 2,745 2,758 13 15 107
Sep-20 2,759 2,782 2,754 2,779 2,753 2,765 12 262,150 1,124,160
Nov-20 2,790 2,809 2,781 2,807 2,777 2,794 17 124 1,991
Dec-20 2,836 2,837 2,816 2,835 2,822 2,830 8 54 194
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,018,434 lots, or 12.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,500 6,500 6,500 6,500 6,506 6,464 -42 6 0
Feb-20 6,576 6,576 6,488 6,562 6,616 6,540 -76 10 157
Mar-20 6,456 6,568 6,446 6,446 6,540 6,504 -36 269 495
Apr-20 – – – 6,284 6,380 6,284 -96 0 9
May-20 6,178 6,272 6,154 6,164 6,276 6,206 -70 1,957,505 680,798
Jun-20 6,028 6,070 6,028 6,040 6,144 6,048 -96 9 15
Jul-20 5,950 5,950 5,924 5,924 6,040 5,942 -98 4 307
Aug-20 5,910 5,910 5,910 5,910 5,980 5,910 -70 1 7
Sep-20 5,846 5,936 5,826 5,836 5,936 5,876 -60 60,624 74,260
Oct-20 – – – 5,854 5,912 5,854 -58 0 4
Nov-20 – – – 5,776 5,834 5,776 -58 0 9
Dec-20 5,924 5,924 5,832 5,834 5,916 5,892 -24 6 41
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 556,774 lots, or 37.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 6,764 6,590 6,764 174 0 0
Mar-20 6,758 6,758 6,758 6,758 6,762 6,758 -4 1 415
May-20 6,730 6,788 6,654 6,670 6,786 6,724 -62 508,975 596,585
Jul-20 – – – 6,736 6,798 6,736 -62 0 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,642 6,702 6,642 -60 0 1
Sep-20 6,616 6,664 6,542 6,552 6,664 6,610 -54 47,798 159,680
Nov-20 – – – 6,504 6,574 6,504 -70 0 211
Dec-20 – – – 6,644 6,698 6,644 -54 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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