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Traders Want More Details on Trade Deal

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for January 14, 2020.

Grain markets were mixed and traded in tight ranges as traders continue to monitor the upcoming Phase one trade deal. Funds continue to stay neutral as well as they wait to see more details of the deal. Grain markets also saw downside pressure from South American crops as beneficial weekend rains helped fields in Brazil.

Our Annual Winter Outlook Conference takes place later this month, January 28th - 30th. Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. will kick it off for us January 28th with his 2020 weather outlook. He'll be followed by our grain and oilseed outlooks on the 29th, and our livestock outlooks on the 30th. Get registered to view our latest price outlooks, trade strategies, and more insight to what 2020 will bring to our markets.

The House is expected to vote on a resolution that formally transmits the articles of impeachment to the Senate and names the House managers who will prosecute the case in the Senate this week. Senator John Cornyn (R-Tx) said he suspects the Senate trial will begin next Tuesday. This should give the Senate time this week to handle other business (particularly the approval of the USMCA agreement).

USDA weekly grain export inspections report (for the week ended 1/9/2020) showed corn exports 460,000 tonnes (expecting 450,000 to 650,000 tonnes), soybeans at 1,136,000 tonnes (expecting 500,000 to 1,100,000 tonnes) and wheat at 474,000 tonnes (expected 300,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes).

Chinese Vice Premier Liu and other top Chinese officials arrived in Washington yesterday. Their early arrival will give them time to meet with their U.S. counterparts ahead of Wednesday's ceremony at the White House to sign the phase-one trade deal.

Private exporters reported to the USDA optional origin sales of 137,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

China customs vice minister Zou Zhiwu said China's imports from the U.S. rebounded in November and December, and positive U.S.-China trade sentiment has boosted companies' confidence in December. Zou added Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S. were at 14.1 billion yuan ($2 billion) in December and that soybean and pork imports rebounded significantly in the month.

Monthly NOPA crush report will be released tomorrow at 11 a.m. CST. NOPA members likely crushed 171.644 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average analyst estimates. December crush forecasts ranged from 168.215 million to 174.034 million bushels, with a median estimate of 171.500 million bushels.

A new bird flu outbreak was reported in Poland, with around 6,000 geese now set to be exterminated, a regional spokesman confirmed. There has been about half a dozen cases already detected across the country since December.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .51 and select up 1.68. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is 146.46. Pork cut-out values were up 1.74.

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Allendale Inc. was established in 1984 in a country grain elevator located in Crystal Lake, Illinois. The first-hand experience with agricultural and financial markets has worked with Allendale’s combined foresight, ingenuity and expertise to make it the successful firm that it is today. Allendale’s goal is to provide its customers the expertise and service they need to grow their agricultural businesses. Allendale’s staff is called on to provide their commentary for TV, radio and newswires on a daily basis.

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