rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Lessened Geopolitical Tensions Support Stock Index Futures

Bookmark and Share

January 13, 2020


Stock index futures are higher, as investors focus on the U.S.-China trade deal.

The Chinese trade delegation left Beijing and is in route to Washington DC to sign the phase- one trade deal. The U.S. and China have both said that they plan to sign a phase-one trade agreement on Wednesday.

In addition, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have eased in recent days.

I anticipate January will be an up month for stock index futures.


The British pound is lower after a report showed gross domestic product in the U.K. fell 0.3% in November from October.

Also, a Bank of England policy maker signaled that he would likely support an interest rate cut later this month, if there are no signs that the economy is improving.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Bank of England on January 30 is approximately 50% and the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate reduction by September 2020.

The Canadian dollar is higher despite lower crude oil prices


Futures are lower, as flight to quality longs are liquidated in light of higher stock index futures and lessened geopolitical tensions.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Eric Rosengren s at 9:00 and Raphael Bostic at 11:40.

The 1:00 central time Treasury budget statement for December is expected to show a $15 billion deficit.

There is a 56% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate at its December 16, 2020 policy meeting. On Friday the probability was 58%.

Interest rate market futures are likely to trade broadly sideways in the longer term, although the flight to quality influence will likely reemerge from time to time.


March 20S&P 500

Support 3262.00 Resistance 3282.00

March 20 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 97.000 Resistance 97.300

March 20Euro Currency

Support 1.11500 Resistance 1.11880

March 20Japanese Yen

Support .91190 Resistance .91660

March 20Canadian Dollar

Support .76460 Resistance .76800

March 20Australian Dollar

Support .6902 Resistance .6936

March 20 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 157^0 Resistance 157^26

February 20Gold

Support 1545.0 Resistance 1565.0

February 20 Crude Oil

Support 58.37 Resistance 59.38

March 20Copper

Support 2.8050 Resistance 2.8450

Contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open An Account. It is fast, saves on postage and its green.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Recent articles from this author

About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.

Copyright ©2005-2020, a product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy