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Ag Thoughts

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The markets in general are showing support. The soy is moderately higher led by vegoils. As discussed this could be a long term change. Long term means 3-6 months. There are many positive aspects offering optimism. The most important is probably the China trade deal. There exists an ample supply of soy globally. However, the Chinese under this deal may be forced to buy US beans. This could, I say could, offer a short term kick to bean prices. This would ultimately push global demand to cheaper SA product. It is my contention the global demand structure, based on China ASF, is in a contraction mode. The worst is probably over. However, the growth may take some time. The whole puzzle could get very interesting. Especially because the SA may use more of their own bean supply. The Brazilian for bio fuel. The Argentinian due to changes in the tax. This all would spell an issue and increase meal exports. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are exporting alot of protein due to the expansion of various seeds. All this could point to a weaker meal price relative to vegoils. The new year will be volatile. Heed the thought. Risk as well as reward potential are on the rise.

Quantify your risk


John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449 or 312-208-8836

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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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