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Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary

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Corn (March)

Fundamentals: Corn futures finished Fridays session little changed, carrying over into a quiet Sunday night/Monday morning trade. All eyes will be on tomorrows Crop Production and WASDE report, likely setting the tone for the rest of the year. Ending stocks will be the big-ticket item, estimates range from 1.190-1.960 billion bushels, the average being 1.861. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 30,935 contracts, trimming their net short position to 85,137. All in all, the wires are slow and there is little new news to get people excited, this may be reason enough to be excited. Theres an old saying, Never short a quiet market, similar concept to being cautions when everyone is buzzing about a market. Our bias will remain neutral until we see the technical landscape shift.

Technicals: Corn futures struggled and ultimately failed against our resistance pocket in the first half of last weeks trade, 381 -382 . That resistance remains intact and is the pocket the bulls NEED to see consecutive closes above which could spark a short covering rally. On the support side of things, the bulls need to defend....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures caught a bid in the back half of last weeks trade on the back of China waiving import tariffs on US soybeans. Focus will now be on tomorrows Crop Production and WASDE report. Estimates for carryout range from .392-.522 billion bushels, the average .474 being little changed from last months .475. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 56,078 contracts, expanding their net short position to 99,019. Recent selling from the funds has been more aggressive than 2018, when the trade war was initiated.

Technicals: Soybeans caught a bounce in the back half of last weeks trade after testing and holding our 4-star support pocket, 865-869 . We talked about that being a buying opportunity in our daily reports and tv interviews, looking for a relief rally towards 894-895 which was achieved on Friday. The market is moving north of this pocket in the early morning trade, but we will....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

Chicago Wheat (March)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures were soft last week on profit taking and lack of bullish news. We have been very cautious and wary of Chicago wheat in the mid-$5 range, we think there is more opportunity in the Kansas City contract, a narrative that weve had for several months now; legging in and out of each side of the spread against technical levels.

Technicals: The market came within a stones throw of our technical support pocket on Friday, we defined that as 515 -518 . This pocket represents a key retracement, the 50-day moving average, and other previously important price points. A break and close below could take the market closer to the physiologically significant $5.00 handle. Resistance comes in from....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

Kansas City Wheat (March)

Technicals: Kansas City wheat came into technical support on Friday, presenting what we believe to be a good risk/reward buying opportunity. That support comes in near 430, representing trend-line support from the contract lows, previously important price points, along with the 50 and 100 day moving average. First resistance comes in near....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

Cotton (March)

Technicals: March cotton futures sprang higher on Friday on optimism around trade and tariff waivers. Some of that optimism is being sucked back out of the market today with prices retreating towards the technically significant 65.00 handle. If the bulls can defend this area, they have....Sign up for your FREE two-week trial!

Feel free to contact Oliver with any questions or comments

Call or text: 312-837-3938


Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.



Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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