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Soybeans - Just My Opinion

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USDA announces 245 K T. soybeans sold to Unknown 120 K T. old crop, 125 K T. new crop

Weekly Soybean Export Sales 683.8 K T. old crop vs. 700 K 1.300 M T. expected no new crop none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales 181.1 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales 10.8 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected no new crop vs. none expected

Soybean meal was your leader in the clubhouse on Thursday. There was a story out of Argentina about a prominent crusher down there having major financial problems. This and fears of Argentina increasing export taxes as early as next week has many thinking their export business may get shifted back to the US. The rumor mill talks about Brazilian soybeans getting tight; leading to ideas about better business for the US as we move into the New Year. Weekly export sales were deemed disappointing but a short holiday week caught some of the blame. On the US/China trade talks front; the US says talks are going well but not ready to talk about increasing tariffs on the 15th. China is requesting quid pro quo in regard to tariffs meaning they will lower their tariffs on US goods if the US lowers tariffs on Chinese goods. The weather/forecasts in Brazil remain conducive to great crop development. Southern Argentina continues to show a drying bias but longer term forecasts do suggest relief. Northern Argentina looks good for now. Weekly soybean export sales were deemed disappointing but it was a shortened holiday week. The announced daily sales did provide some offset to the weekly sales.

Not much happens with the interior soybean basis. River locations have a softening look along with the gulf. Processors continue to stand in as Board Crush margins are up nearly 50 cents since mid-October. Soybean spreads ran steady to fractionally better within the current crop year while old crop gains on the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior has both rail and truck running steady to better today while the gulf is maintaining its recent easing. Meal spreads ran mixed within the current year but did gain on the new crop.

Soybeans and soybean meal continue to rally out of the hole while soybean oil is more so consolidation on top of recent interim lows. Jan soybeans from Mondays low to todays high have rallied about 21 cents. We have yet to challenge any significant short term resistance (low to mid $8.90s). Todays rally in Jan meal did get into the low side of some decent looking short term resistance. Jan bean oil is more of minor consolidating affair as it failed to sustain its earlier in the day rally. the soybean complex will continue to take its cue from any overnight rhetoric dealing with the ongoing US/China trade talks.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/06

Jan Soybeans: $8.76 - $8.92

Jan Soybean Meal: $297.5 $305.0

Jan Soybean Oil: $30.10 - $30.85

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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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