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The Christmas Comeback. The Energy Report 12/04/19

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What selloff? Oil prices are coming back from the Black Friday massacre as, along with OPEC plus optimism, the American Petroleum Institute (API) gives the algorithms a reality check. The API reported that U.S. crude supply fell by 3.7 million barrels last week, signaling an even bigger draw when we get today’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) version of the report.

Oil is also realizing that the erroneous rumors that OPEC Plus might not get a deal, a reason for the major selloff on Black and Blue Friday, was basically fake news. Iraq’s oil minister Thamir Ghadhban said that an extension of a cut is already in the bag and there are serious discussions of an even larger cut. He says he also supports cutting another 400,000 barrels a day from the market, taking the total reduction to 1.6 million. Of course, other OPEC members are pointing at Iraq for cheating.

They are also pointing at Russia. Russia says that its overproduction is condensate and should not be counted because they do not export it. Stay tuned.

Still, the Saudis want this market to pop so the odds of a bigger cut should be priced in.

The API also reported a bigger than expected increase in gasoline supply to the tune of 2.93 million barrels. Gas demand is weaker in part due to snow and online shoppers shopping from home. Yet distillates increased only 749,000 barrels, leaving diesel valuable ahead of the new International Maritime Organization 202 rules on clean-burning diesel fuel for ships.

China talks are going well, at least for today. Stocks are rallying after President Trump said talks are going well. The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. stock futures and European equities rallied Wednesday as investors gauged comments from President Trump on his willingness to delay any trade deal to be rhetoric used to further negotiations, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the talks, stoking further optimism among investors.

That is a turnaround from Tuesday when stocks fell sharply on concern that a trade agreement—seen as key for bolstering global economic growth—could be in jeopardy after Mr. Trump suggested the negotiations could continue well into next year.

“Those comments from Trump were off-the-cuff,” said Mr. Spencer. “The trade talks—or the lack of them—have been around for a year now and they’re losing their strength over the market.” What sell-off?
Phil Flynn

Oh my gosh did the weather forecast change again? Nat Gas giving up gains. If you don’t like the weather forecast, just stick around, it will change.

Hey, did you know that the Fox Business Network is invested in you? Well, you had better find out by tuning into the Fox Business Network! Don’t miss out on my daily trade levels and special subscriber updates! Call me at 888-264-5665 or email me at


In case you missed it! Phil’s guest appearance on the McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast last Friday, September 20th talking about current energy market dynamics. LISTEN HERE!

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About the author

Mr. Flynn is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.

Phil Flynn's accurate and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide. His impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls as writer of “The Energy Report”.

He is a daily contributor to Fox Business Network where he provides daily market updates and analysis. Phil’s daily commentary is also featured in Futures Magazine, International Business Times, Inside Futures, 312 Energy, Enercast, among many others.

Phil is a lifelong resident of Illinois. He attended Daley College in Chicago before beginning his career on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange which eventually led him and his team to The PRICE Futures Group.

Media highlights include: The President of the United States, Bloomberg, ABC, CBS, NBC´s "Today Show" and "Nightly News with Tom Brokaw", CNBC, CNN/CNNfn, FOX´s "O´Reilly Factor", PBS´s "The Newshour with Jim Lehrer" and "Nightly Business Report", MSNBC´s "The News with Brian Williams", The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Investor´s Business Daily, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, Associated Press, The Toronto Globe & Mail, Houston Chronicle, Futures Magazine, Inside Futures, and National Public Radio.

Contact Phil Flynn: (800) 769-7021 or at

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