rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

U.S.-China Trade Optimism Wanes


Bookmark and Share

November 29, 2019

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

U.S. stock index futures fell, as trade tensions resurfaced after China rebuked President Donald Trumps decision to ratify a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario will continue and easier credit conditions, although likely at a slower pace, from most of the worlds central banks are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that underpins stock index futures.

Expect higher prices for futures through the balance of the year.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar advanced to a seven week high, as interest rate differential expectations remain slightly bullish on balance for the greenback.

The euro currency is lower after a report showed the euro zone's annual rate of inflation rebounded in November after two consecutive months of decline, but remained well below the European Central Bank's target.

The European Union's statistics agency said prices were 1.0% higher than a year earlier, which is a faster increase than the 0.9% expected by economists.

The euro is lower in spite of news that German jobless claims fell unexpectedly in November. Jobless claims fell 16,000 when economists forecast an increase of 5,000 jobless claims in November.

Economic growth in Canada decelerated in the third quarter. Canada's gross domestic product increased at a 1.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, which compares to the market expectations for a 1.4% advance.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The Federal Open Market Committees next policy meeting will be held on December 10-11. No change in policy is likely at the Feds last policy meeting of this year.

Financial futures markets are suggesting there is a 43% probability that the FOMC will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its July 29, 2020 policy meeting. On Wednesday the probability was 46%.

Interest rate market futures are likely to trade broadly sideways in the longer term, although the flight to quality influence will probably reemerge from time to time.

INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES

The industrial commodities are lower today, as a direct result of the heightened tensions between the U.S. and China. However, if I am correct in my belief that the global economy is stabilizing, it is likely that the industrial commodities, including copper, crude oil and lumber will advance in price in the long term.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

December 19S&P 500

Support 3138.00 Resistance 3158.00

December 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 98.200 Resistance 98.550

December 19Euro Currency

Support 1.09850 Resistance 1.10330

December 19Japanese Yen

Support .91180 Resistance .91600

December 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75050 Resistance .75380

December 19Australian Dollar

Support .6754 Resistance .6790

March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 158^28 Resistance 159^24

February 19Gold

Support 1457.0 Resistance 1468.0

March 19Copper

Support 2.6600 Resistance 2.7050

January 20 Crude Oil

Support 56.97 Resistance 58.55

Contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open An Account. It is fast, saves on postage and its green.


Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2020 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy