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Ag Thoughts

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The soy started the week under pressure. The thought is that the US crop will bet out before too long. In addition, the weather in SA has shown improvement and other than a few bad spots all is well. The long term in the market presents some opportunities, but perhaps more subdued than past years. The bean carry, while lower than previously thought domestically, is still more than ample and approx the second highest on record. This will hang over the market. In addition, the Chinese demand for both beans and meal remain lower than previous years. Although it should be noted that the demand for veg oils both in China and globally is on the rise. This trend could well continue into the new year. The main factor is the demand for bio fuels. It is interesting to note that this is not always price driven. Meaning, the demand could exist regardless of the price due to govt mandates. This could ultimately force higher prices as stocks dwindle. The current veg oil stocks remain a supporting factor. Look for a potential uptrend to start in bean oil after the Thanksgiving Holiday. Especially as we are correcting oil share today. As always these are offered as insights and suggestions. Always quantify your risk.

Be Well,

John Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449 or 312-208-8836

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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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