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Ag Thoughts


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The soy under pressure again. The follow through seems slow but steady. The performer remains soy oil again. The oil share showing steady gains , but still off from the targets I perceive as possible. The catalyst is the palm rally. A stagnation in production, coupled with a large pick up in global demand has drawn stocks down to levels not seen in some time. The price relationship has gained on bean oil , now a 50-60$ discount. The veg oil market should remain firm into the 2020 crop season with the current fundamentals in place. The question now is if the US will solve the China issues in the near term. The weather in the US will allow for the last part of US bean harvest to advance it appears. In addition the vast majority of SA has improved weather conditions. The potential at present is intact for a trend harvest. (There remains time for this to change). The global crush margins will push for a continued high rate. In my opinion the world will at present absorb the oil , but it is my thought given the ASF , the protein markets will be oversupplied. These are all my thoughts. Quantify your risk always.

BE WELL,

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
800-993-5449
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
www.walshtrading.com



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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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