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Grains Report 11/13/19


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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov. 14, 2019 25 Nov 11, 2019

Crop Progress
Date 10-Nov 3-Nov 2018 Avg
Cotton Harvested 62 53 53 59
Corn Harvested 66 52 83 85
Soybeans Harvested 85 75 87 92
Sorghum Harvested 88 78 72 80
Sugar beets Harvested 96 70 95 96
Sunflowers Harvested 44 31 60 75
Peanuts Harvested 89 84 80 85
Winter Wheat Planted 92 89 88 92
Winter Wheat Emerged 78 71 76 81

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 3 10 33 43 11
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 9 30 45 12
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 9 34 45 9

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 12
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 07, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/07/2019 10/31/2019 11/08/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 2,595 3,134 416 14,403 5,506
CORN 560,105 283,704 1,157,929 4,321,316 11,138,340
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 172 194
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 122 0 0 920 1,294
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 25,486 67,048 11,941 401,016 171,685
SOYBEANS 1,331,631 1,482,444 1,357,333 10,886,450 9,978,438
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 528,875 293,971 354,188 11,459,833 9,309,375
Total 2,448,814 2,130,301 2,881,807 27,084,110 30,604,832
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher on weather concerns. It was a day for record cold in much of the Great Plains and Midwest and some of the newly planted and emerged Winter Wheat could be damaged or worse. The areas most at risk are the areas where Wheat was planted first so it was the HRW market that moved the most. Temperatures will start to moderate now but any damage to be done is done. USDA showed good planting and emergence in its data last night. The condition was also good but the readings were taken before the cold hit the region. So far there are no reports of losses and those might not come for a while as freeze damage can be very hard to see and analyze. Chart trends turned up in HRW but remain more mixed in the other two markets.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures will moderate over he next few days. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal but near to above normal by late this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 510, 504, and 501 December, with resistance at 522, 524, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 439, 451, and 453 December. Support is at 432, 425, and 418 December, with resistance at 439, 444, and 453 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 515, 514, and 510 December, and resistance is at 524, 529, and 532 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower once again yesterday. Trading volumes remain low and it looks like the Rice market has started holiday trading a little early this year. USDA made few changes to US production or demand on Friday and showed a slight decrease in ending stocks due to slightly reduced production. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive although the weekly export sales report was not that strong last week. The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1192, 1183, and 1174 January, with resistance at 1210, 1213, and 1220 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 13
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.39 9.18 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.05 9.41 0.00
Brokens 8.68 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher and Oats closed lower. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts for Corn. Oats still look ready to rally more in the coming weeks based on the charts. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and the lack of demand but harvest progress ideas took a hit with the very cold weather seen in the Midwest. The cold and snow will make harvest more difficult. Farmers have been slow to harvest the Corn and have concentrated on Soybeans. Many producers say that the Corn is not drying down quickly and they are leaving it out in hopes that nature will help the progress along. Producers hope to avoid the use of artificial drying in order to save money. There is still a lot of Corn out in the fields but the temperatures are expected to moderate the rest of this week and that might allow for more rapid harvest if the producer wants. Some will elect to leave the Corn out in order to get as much natural drying as possible and some who got more snow will need to wait for soils to firm.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 365, 359, and 357 December. Support is at 373, 370, and 368 December, and resistance is at 382, 384, and 385 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 310, 320, and 334 December. Support is at 306, 301, and 297 December, and resistance is at 313, 315, and 318 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were slightly lower on more reports of beneficial rains in Brazil and on little new demand news for the market. The rains have been timely as planting of the crops there has been rapid. Ideas are that good rains can continue now and that a good production can be expected. USDA released its weekly crop progress reports and the producers are getting close to the end of the Soybeans harvest. Some artificial drying is being used but at least the crops are coming out. The market was affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China. President Trump said nothing new yesterday in a speech in New York. Word that a Phase One deal was progressing well and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal is still around but traders want to see something fixed at last. On Friday, President Trump said that he had not agreed to reduce tariffs yet and that announcement pushed futures lower before the reports were released.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 106,00 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 913, 910 and 893 January. Support is at 912, 906, and 904 January, and resistance is at 922, 925, and 927 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 299.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2980 and 2920 December. Support is at 3060, 3050, and 3020 December, with resistance at 3140, 3150, and 3180 December.

DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean Crop of 120.4M Tons for 2019-2020 Season
By Jeffey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecast for the country’s soybean crop in the 2019-2020 season as the area planted and productivity are expected to increase.
Brazilian farmers will grow 120.9 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting is more than half-finished, a slight increase from the 120.4 million forecast in October. The country grew 115 million tons of soybeans in the 2018-2019 season. The area planted will increase 2.3% from last year, Conab said.
Unusually hot and dry weather in some soybean-producing states at the end of last year and the start of this year reduced yields in areas, and led to a smaller crop in the 2018-2019 season compared with the record 119.3 million tons grown in 2017-2018. The 2.7% increase in productivity forecast for the current season is partially because of the decline in productivity in 2018-2019.
Brazilian farmers will produce a total corn crop of 98.37 million metric tons in 2019-2020, compared with the October forecast of 98.39 million metric tons. That’s also down from the record 100.05 million tons produced in 2018-2019, Conab said.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on a lack of trading interest and on a firmer Canadian Dollar. Demand from crusher is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now.. Palm Oil was lower again yesterday on some speculative long liquidation. The market is expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data tomorrow. Price action is very strong. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in40 years on Friday.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 414,020 tons so far this month, up 12% from last month. SGS said that exports are 425,010 tons, from 375,117 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2670 and 2840 January. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2500 January, with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 January.

DJ Malaysia’s October Palm Oil Exports 1.64M Tons; Up 16% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 16% on month at 1.64 million metric tons in October, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the October crop data and revised numbers for September, issued by MPOB:
October September Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,795,880 1,842,433 Dn 2.53%
Palm Oil Exports 1,641,743 1,410,023 Up 16.43%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 99,601 88,311 Up 12.78%
Closing Stocks 2,348,066 2,448,528 Dn 4.1%
Crude Palm Oil 1,323,696 1,353,343 Dn 2.19%
Processed Palm Oil 1,024,370 1,095,185 Dn 6.47%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week. Temperatures should average below normal but will moderate into the weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +58 Dec +180 Dec +90 Dec +58 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +60 Dec +95 Dec +56 Jan
January +52 Mar +90 Mar +50 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 12
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Nov. 12 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, Nov. 12
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 433.30 -30.00 Nov 2019 up 2.10
Track Thunder Bay 472.10 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.20
Track Vancouver 480.10 18.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 635.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 645.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 655.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 655.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 637.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 647.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 632.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 515.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,540.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 167.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1510)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 148,182 lots, or 5.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,276 3,276 3,276 0 0 0
Jan-20 3,412 3,416 3,376 3,407 3,413 3,403 -10 132,046 160,570
Mar-20 – – – 3,456 3,456 3,456 0 0 66
May-20 3,714 3,714 3,691 3,708 3,698 3,703 5 15,396 88,326
Jul-20 3,752 3,752 3,752 3,752 3,761 3,752 -9 2 50
Sep-20 3,785 3,788 3,764 3,782 3,770 3,781 11 738 10,592
Corn
Turnover: 707,870 lots, or 13.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 1,822 1,822 1,822 0 0 2,000
Jan-20 1,838 1,844 1,837 1,841 1,843 1,841 -2 477,080 1,265,474
Mar-20 1,876 1,882 1,873 1,877 1,880 1,878 -2 51,810 559,526
May-20 1,919 1,924 1,917 1,920 1,925 1,920 -5 159,910 860,670
Jul-20 1,943 1,948 1,943 1,946 1,948 1,945 -3 1,502 8,420
Sep-20 1,968 1,972 1,966 1,967 1,975 1,968 -7 17,568 104,554
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,792,000 lots, or 51.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 2,982 2,982 2,982 0 0 0
Dec-19 2,866 2,890 2,860 2,879 2,901 2,871 -30 226 4,106
Jan-20 2,881 2,894 2,873 2,887 2,872 2,884 12 993,868 1,454,510
Mar-20 2,803 2,823 2,802 2,819 2,800 2,813 13 66,230 390,888
May-20 2,785 2,796 2,781 2,787 2,779 2,787 8 592,510 2,366,232
Jul-20 2,806 2,820 2,805 2,811 2,797 2,810 13 142 1,754
Aug-20 – – – 2,834 2,834 2,834 0 0 142
Sep-20 2,845 2,856 2,843 2,853 2,835 2,849 14 139,024 847,766
Palm Oil
Turnover: 3,517,286 lots, or 19.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 4,990 4,990 4,990 0 0 0
Dec-19 – – – 5,468 5,468 5,468 0 0 0
Jan-20 5,498 5,554 5,454 5,472 5,522 5,498 -24 3,065,604 847,808
Feb-20 5,516 5,584 5,516 5,560 5,576 5,536 -40 14 716
Mar-20 5,580 5,580 5,580 5,580 5,692 5,580 -112 2 20
Apr-20 – – – 5,626 5,626 5,626 0 0 2
May-20 5,650 5,716 5,630 5,648 5,698 5,670 -28 446,978 459,034
Jun-20 – – – 5,638 5,664 5,638 -26 0 10
Jul-20 – – – 5,648 5,648 5,648 0 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,314 5,340 5,314 -26 0 2
Sep-20 5,482 5,538 5,462 5,486 5,508 5,498 -10 4,674 35,802
Oct-20 5,466 5,574 5,466 5,574 5,678 5,498 -180 14 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,231,294 lots, or 78.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,334 6,334 6,334 0 0 0
Dec-19 6,296 6,296 6,296 6,296 6,414 6,296 -118 2 10
Jan-20 6,440 6,458 6,366 6,384 6,470 6,422 -48 897,814 808,294
Mar-20 6,480 6,480 6,476 6,476 6,480 6,478 -2 4 700
May-20 6,340 6,368 6,294 6,310 6,376 6,340 -36 317,742 531,128
Jul-20 – – – 6,344 6,380 6,344 -36 0 532
Aug-20 – – – 6,336 6,336 6,336 0 0 2
Sep-20 6,250 6,268 6,210 6,226 6,280 6,250 -30 15,732 130,156
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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