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Our Full Report - Blue Line Morning Express

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Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (December)

Last weeks close:Settled at 3090.50, up 4.50 on Friday and up 27.25 on the week

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks are set to open lower to start the week on this Veterans Day holiday. On Friday, President Trump addressed what we were already suspecting saying he does not want to rollback current tariffs in order to achieve the interim Phase One trade deal with China. While this threw a bit of cold water over sentiment, it was largely expected, and equities broadly took it in stride; the S&P and NQ each closed at record levels. White House Advisor and trade hawk Peter Navarro echoed the Presidents comments over the weekend adding a more hard-lined stance saying there will be no rollbacks and furthermore the tariffs are needed as an insurance policy. Although the market is largely ignoring the lack of clarity surrounding an interim trade deal, strong earnings, solid ISM Non-Manufacturing and better Trade Balance data (China and Germany) last week helped set a soothing tone.

Todays U.S economic calendar is bare as Veterans Day is a federal holiday. Headlines and footage of violence on the streets in Hong Kong has set a sour tone to start the week; the Hang Seng closed down 2.6%. In the U.K, the British Pound is up nearly a penny after Nigel Farage announced his Brexit Party wont fight Prime Minister Boris Johnsons conservatives in the upcoming election. This comes despite a slew of weak data from the U.K this morning including GDP and Manufacturing worse than expected. As the week develops, U.S CPI is in focus Wednesday morning followed by Fed Chair Powells two-day Congressional testimony.

Technicals:Price action is lower this morning but holding well against first key supports in each the S&P and NQ. If the market is able to consolidate above these levels and regain our momentum indictor picots, it will certainly give the bulls an edge into the close. However, the lower open pose strong overhead resistance given a gap from Fridays settlement. This brings key resistance in the S&P at 3090.50 and aligns with multiple indicators in the NQ to create major three-star resistance at 8250-8261.50; close above these levels is very bullish and we would expect a tailwind of buying upon such. To the downside, strong major three-star support held extremely well last week and mounts as a line in sand to keep a floor under this latest elevated leg, however, a close below here will likely welcome a strong wave of selling.

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Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 3090.50**, 3100**, 3115***

Pivot: 3083

Support: 3075.50-3077**, 3063.25-3069.25***, 3055**, 3032.25-3035.75**, 3020.25-3025.75***

NQ (December)

Resistance: 8250-8261.50***, 8300***

Pivot: 8231

Support: 8207.25-8213**, 8150-8179.25***, 8090.25-8100**, 8050**, 8002.50-8020***

Crude Oil (December)

Last weeks close:Settled at 57.24, up 0.09 on Friday and 1.04 on the week

Fundamentals:Crude Oil is following the broader risk-environment lower and we find it more susceptible to a less enthusiastic at best U.S-China trade narrative when compared to U.S equities. Trade Balance data from China and Germany provided a little hope to finish out last week but poor data from Japan to the U.K Monday was the latest reminder of deteriorating growth due to the trade war. This will certainly be a closely watched topic as the week unfolds with U.S CPI, Fed Chair Powell and maybe most importantly a deluge of data from China Wednesday night. The Saudi Aramco IPO is also in the headlines this morning as the company published its prospectus. While there were few details on price, number of shares and valuation, it did detail a sharp drop in profit for the third quarter due to lower Crude Oil and the September attacks. Bloomberg also published an article over the weekend detailing how Iran discovered an oilfield containing 53 billion barrels of Crude; how conveniently timed.

Technicals:We continued to find value in selling Crude Oil at these elevated levels and as it struggles to close out above the 200-day moving average which comes in a bit higher today as major three-star resistance. Our momentum indicator comes in at 56.71 this morning and while below here, we believe the bears have a slight edge. Still, they must achieve a close below major three-star support at 56.01-56.20 in order to encourage additional buying and potential roll this thing over.

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Resistance: 57.39-57.43***, 58.22-58.32**, 59.11***

Pivot: 56.71

Support: 56.01-56.20***, 55.72-55.90**, 54.61-54.94***

Gold (December)

Last weeks close:Settled at 1462.9, down 3.5 Friday and down 48.5 on the week

Fundamentals:Gold is lingering at the level since August 5th as equity markets set fresh record closes Friday. With U.S benchmarks on their back foot to start the week and a bit less enthusiasm surrounding the U.S-China trade deal, the metal could easily see a consolidation higher ahead of U.S CPI and Fed Chair Powell Wednesday. This does not mean Gold has bottomed but instead will emphasize the importance of such a pivotal session to come. The U.S economic calendar is bare but data from Japan and the U.K was weak and coupled with violence in Hong Kong, this helped create an early bid for Gold which has since dissipated.

Technicals:Gold traded to a low of 1457 on Friday and major three-star support at 1450-1454 is working to create a near-term floor. Still, rallies have stalled to hold out above the previous low at 1465 and resistance is developing at 1469.3-1473. While there is a decent probability Gold consolidates higher into Wednesday, make no mistake, the metal is still very vulnerable to see a further washout. This is fine though as we expect such to open the door to a seasonal buy opportunity.

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Resistance: 1469.3-1473**, 1484.5-1490.7***, 1495.9-1497**, 1503.6-1505**, 1511.6-1515.6***

Pivot: 1465

Support: 1450-1454***, 1413.2***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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