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TFM Sunrise Update - November 8, 2019

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Corn futures were mostly steady overnight while maintaining a weaker direction for the week. Dec corn is trading near a 5-week low at 3.74-1/2 ahead of today's November USDA Supply/Demand report. The average trade guess for yield is 167.2 bushels per acres compared to 168.4 bpa last month. Harvested acreage is estimated to be 81.3 mil versus 81.8 mil; and, ending stocks look to come in around 1.80 bil bu compared to 1.929 bil in October. In other markets, crude is lower and down for the week, the dollar is making a fresh 3-week high this morning.


Soybean futures were unchanged overnight. The average trade estimate for yield in today's Supply/Demand report is 46.6 bpa compared to 46.9 bpa the month before; harvested acreage -75.5 mil versus 75.6; and, ending stocks are estimated at 432 mil bu compared to 460 mil in October. For now, November beans, at 9.26=1/4 at the contract's 20-day moving average after trending along the lower 10-day for much of the week.


Wheat futures were flat/weak overnight overnight in the December contracts at all 3 exchanges. Chicago wheat was down 2 to 5.10-1/2; KC down 3/4 cent to 4.24 and Mpls off 2 cents to 5.16-3/4. For the week, all three classes are lower and yesterday's poor weekly export sales and pre-positioning for today's USDA report has the market on the defensive.


Cattle futures are called steady to lower on a market that could be looking somewhat tired. Dec live cattle failed to punch through overhead resistance forged on Monday, but Feb cattle did make a new high for the move yesterday. Packers stepped into the market Thursday buying several thousand cattle at $182 dressed with a few at $116/cwt live. Bids of $113-114 were passed in the south.


Hog futures are called mixed to higher. We continue to believe that the longer-term trend for hog prices could be higher as U.S. supplies tighten and the world searches for pork. Also note is the belief that the U.S. and China are closing in on a Phase I deal. For the week, Feb hogs are up slightly, most of the rest of contracts are basically unchanged.

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