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Grains Report 11/07/19


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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 08, 2019 10 Nov 06, 2019

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Nov 7
For the week ended Oct 31, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 360.6 0.0 14938.4 13745.6 4172.5 8.9
hrw 90.6 0.0 5477.1 3953.4 1126.0 0.0
srw 10.9 0.0 1832.8 1682.6 580.1 4.2
hrs 118.8 0.0 4111.3 4397.8 1232.7 4.8
white 66.4 0.0 2846.4 3322.7 921.3 0.0
durum 73.9 0.0 670.8 389.2 312.5 0.0
corn 487.9 0.0 11893.1 22533.6 7954.1 218.8
soybeans 1807.4 0.0 21078.6 21545.6 11564.6 3.0
soymeal 262.4 0.0 4168.0 4827.6 3228.2 66.2
soyoil 3.8 0.1 236.9 247.2 132.2 0.3
upland cotton 164.5 118.6 9548.7 9238.5 7064.6 894.4
pima cotton 30.0 32.5 261.3 338.9 156.0 32.5
sorghum 216.6 0.0 538.7 221.9 492.5 0.0
barley 1.0 0.0 58.5 55.7 37.2 0.0
rice 53.3 0.0 1608.6 1163.5 733.7 0.0

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,602 13,030-13,786 13,779 14,420
Corn Yield 167.3 164.5-170.0 168.4 176.4
Harvested Acres 81.3 79.2-81.8 81.8 81.7
Soybean Production 3,513 3,396-3,609 3,550 4,428
Soybean Yield 46.6 45.9-47.6 46.9 50.6
Harvested Acres 75.4 74.5-77.2 87.6
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 13,365 165.0 81.0 3,501 46.5 75.3
AgriSource 13,786 168.9 81.6 3,526 46.7 75.5
Allendale 13,785 168.5 N/A 3,541 46.8 N/A
DC Analysis 13,690 168.0 81.5 3,502 46.4 75.5
Doane 13,650 166.8 81.8 3,500 46.3 75.6
EDF Man 13,692 168.0 81.5 3,492 46.5 75.1
Farm Futures 13,474 168.3 80.1 3,609 47.6 75.9
Futures International 13,701 167.7 81.7 3,492 46.3 75.4
Grain Cycles 13,646 166.8 81.8 3,570 47.2 75.6
Hueber Report 13,701 167.9 81.6 3,492 46.6 75.3
INTL FCStone 13,702 170.0 80.6 3,539 47.5 74.5
Kapco Futures 13,685 167.3 81.8 3,530 47.0 75.1
Sid Love Consulting 13,496 166.0 81.3 3,447 45.9 75.1
Midland Research 13,650 166.8 81.8 3,510 46.4 75.6
Northstar 13,675 168.0 81.4 3,490 46.3 75.4
RJO Brien 13,644 167.2 N/A 3,501 46.5 N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0 81.5 3,468 46.0 75.4
US Commodities 13,372 165.5 80.8 3,396 46.2 75.3
VantageRM 13,717 167.9 81.7 3,526 46.9 75.2
Western Milling 13,030 164.5 79.2 3,591 46.5 77.2
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,642 167.6 81.4 3,558 47.2 75.4

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 1,799 1,479-1,959 1,929
Soybeans 429 306-521 460
Wheat 1,035 995-1,078 1,043
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,650 410 1,053
AgriSource 1,935 437 1,040
Allendale 1,959 494 1,022
DC Analysis 1,739 414 1,025
Doane 1,810 395 1005
EDF Man 1,949 422 1,040
Farm Futures 1,816 470 1,073
Futures International 1,900 427 1,043
Grain Cycles 1,821 480 1,043
Hueber Report 1,851 433 1043
INTL FCStone 1,861 521 995
Kapco Futures 1,774 440 1,040
Sid Love Consulting 1,645 380 1,026
Midland Research 1,849 420 1,011
Northstar 1,925 415 1,025
RJO Brien 1,712 401 1,042
RMC 1,910 378 1,042
US Commodities 1,481 306 1,021
VantageRM 1,866 435 1,018
Western Milling 1,479 520 1,078
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,842 418 1,043

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 323.9 322.7-324.4 324.0
Soybeans 110.3 109.9-113.1 109.9
Wheat 277.8 277.6-278.5 277.7
2019-20
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 299.5 291.1-304.1 302.6
Soybeans 95.0 88.0-109.4 95.2
Wheat 286.8 285.4-287.8 287.8
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 324.0 109.9 277.7 295.0 92.8 286.2
Allendale 324.4 110.6 278.5 302.9 95.7 287.6
Doane 324.0 109.9 278.0 300.0 95.0 287.0
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A 303.0 94.5 287.0
Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 298.0 94.0 287.4
Futures International N/A N/A N/A 300.0 91.8 286.1
Grain Cycles N/A N/A N/A 302.0 95.7 286.0
Hueber Report 324.0 109.9 277.7 299.7 94.8 287.6
INTL FCStone 322.7 113.1 277.6 304.1 109.4 285.5
Kapco Futures N/A N/A N/A 296.0 94.6 287.8
Northstar 324.0 109.9 277.7 300.0 94.2 287.0
RMC 324.0 109.9 277.7 302.0 95.0 287.8
US Commodities 324.0 109.9 277.7 291.1 88.0 287.6
Western Milling 324.0 109.9 277.7 299.5 96.0 286.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 324.0 109.9 277.7 299.2 93.7 285.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed as the market gets ready for the USDA reports on Friday. Chicago SRW closed slightly higher while Chicago HRW and Minneapolis Spring closed slightly lower Little change is expected for Wheat data or supply and demand estimates. USDA did a new survey of Spring Wheat producers to find final production, so some changes could be made there. These changes would most likely lower production by a little bit. Russia and Europe continued to dominate the world market as prices in both areas have come down a little bit. US export sales were on the weaker side once again last week. US Winter crops are being planted now but planting is starting to wind down as progress is over 85% complete. Australia is once again seeing significant yield losses as a drought in the country extends into the third year. It has been dry in parts of Argentina, especially southern areas, and Wheat production potential has suffered. The weaker crops in the south have supported better demand ideas for US Wheat but the demand has yet to show. Russia and Europe continue to compete for sales and have captured most of the export volume until now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rain on Thursday, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 531 and 546 December. Support is at 512, 507, and 504 December, with resistance at 524, 527, and 535 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 438, 451, and 455 December. Support is at 427, 421, and 416 December, with resistance at 437, 439, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 and 504 December. Support is at 520, 518, and 514 December, and resistance is at 529, 532, and 534 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher as the market gets ready for the USDA reports on Friday. Ideas were that speculators were buying again to cover short positions or to probe the long side. There are some who think that USDA will reduce production and ending stocks estimates in its reports. The harvest is mostly over in all areas. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. There are ideas that not much Rice is available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put into storage. Export demand has been holding well and this gives hope for higher prices down the road.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some rain on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1174, and 1158 January, with resistance at 1208, 1213, and 1220 January.

DJ Thai Rice Production Likely Lower Due to Flooding: USDA — Market Talk
0355 GMT – Rice production in Thailand is likely to be lower than previously forecast due to flooding, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. However, the USDA continues to expect total rough-rice production of 31.0 million metric tons in 2019-2020, up 0.6% on year, due to stronger off-season production. It notes that rice exports will likely fall due to limited supplies of low-quality rice and a strengthening currency. This may provide some support for rice prices in the region as they have fallen in recent weeks on ample supply. The FAO All Rice Price Index fell 1.1% on month in October. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower with Corn seeing some light volume selling and very little buying interest. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and the lack of demand and chart trends are starting to turn down. Midwest harvest activity has increased this week as the weather has been cold but drier. Very cold temperatures are likely after some rain and snow moves through the region over the next couple of days. Yield data shows mixed crops but some very good results. A few farmers have reported yield potential above a year ago. These reports are mostly in western areas. Yield reports in central and eastern states have been more varied. Export demand remains bad but ethanol demand should continue to improve as petroleum prices have been firming. USDA will issue its latest production and supply and demand estimates on Friday and many expect the agency to cut export demand again in its projections and to increase ending stocks. Production and yields are expected to be lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 374, 365, and 359 December. Support is at 378, 377, and 375 December, and resistance is at 385, 386, and 392 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 310 and 320 December. Support is at 301, 297, and 295 December, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 315 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower but Soybean Oil closed slightly higher. The market is getting ready for the big reports from USDA that will be released on Friday. The weekly USDA data showed that farmers were more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn last week as producers hope to get the Soybeans out before the snow makes it more difficult. The market is keeping a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks, but these forecasts have been around for a while and the rains have not really come yet. USDA will release its next monthly supply and demand and production reports on Friday. USDA need not make any real changes in the supply and demand reports this month. Production might not change that much from last month but the trade expects production and ending stocks to be cut.
Overnight News: China bought 136,000 tons of US Soybeans. Philippines bought 133,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 913 January. Support is at 925, 922, and 918 January, and resistance is at 933, 942, and 945 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 297.00, 296.00, and 292.00 December. Support is at 297.00, 296.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 302.00, 304.00, and 305.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3200 and 3290 December. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3100 December, with resistance at 3190, 3200, and 3230 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly higher. Higher world vegetable oils markets are starting to lend some support to Canola. Demand from crusher is reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with stronger world vegetable oils markets and despite reports of strong exports. The market is expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data tomorrow. Price action is very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2560 and 2620 January. Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2400 January, with resistance at 2590, 2620, and 2650 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow over the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +54 Dec +178 Dec +90 Dec +49 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +56 Dec +95 Dec +49 Jan
January +53 Mar +90 Mar +50 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 6
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 432.10 -30.00 Jan 2020 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.40 10.00 Jan 2020 up 0.30
Basis: Vancouver 480.40 18.00 Jan 2020 up 0.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 615.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 622.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 637.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 637.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 617.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 625.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 640.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 612.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 492.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,460.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 161.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1300)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 242,910 lots, or 8.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,276 3,276 3,276 0 0 0
Jan-20 3,394 3,414 3,383 3,385 3,368 3,398 30 216,812 206,666
Mar-20 3,458 3,458 3,458 3,458 3,442 3,458 16 10 72
May-20 3,701 3,704 3,678 3,685 3,684 3,689 5 24,196 88,390
Jul-20 – – – 3,736 3,736 3,736 0 0 50
Sep-20 3,775 3,778 3,754 3,754 3,750 3,763 13 1,892 10,646
Corn
Turnover: 1,320,886 lots, or 24.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 1,816 1,821 1,816 -5 0 12,000
Jan-20 1,856 1,863 1,842 1,845 1,862 1,851 -11 848,048 1,306,596
Mar-20 1,888 1,895 1,877 1,881 1,894 1,884 -10 91,810 488,074
May-20 1,940 1,950 1,931 1,935 1,945 1,939 -6 319,974 801,166
Jul-20 1,964 1,970 1,954 1,957 1,970 1,958 -12 808 8,722
Sep-20 1,984 1,995 1,978 1,984 1,992 1,986 -6 60,246 102,408
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,144,496 lots, or 62.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 2,982 2,982 2,982 0 0 0
Dec-19 2,931 2,938 2,904 2,909 2,938 2,919 -19 3,396 4,838
Jan-20 2,928 2,940 2,908 2,935 2,935 2,928 -7 1,284,392 1,738,958
Mar-20 2,877 2,877 2,829 2,852 2,861 2,849 -12 96,470 328,588
May-20 2,827 2,840 2,808 2,830 2,839 2,825 -14 619,638 2,145,016
Jul-20 2,850 2,857 2,828 2,849 2,859 2,844 -15 86 1,538
Aug-20 2,850 2,867 2,850 2,857 2,867 2,862 -5 16 140
Sep-20 2,884 2,889 2,855 2,878 2,885 2,874 -11 140,498 712,762
Palm Oil
Turnover: 4,995,360 lots, or 27.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 4,990 4,990 4,990 0 0 0
Dec-19 5,380 5,446 5,318 5,318 5,370 5,380 10 24 0
Jan-20 5,432 5,486 5,286 5,312 5,380 5,400 20 4,411,258 777,126
Feb-20 5,460 5,460 5,384 5,384 5,444 5,422 -22 4 704
Mar-20 5,536 5,550 5,536 5,550 5,564 5,542 -22 4 20
Apr-20 5,488 5,488 5,488 5,488 5,474 5,488 14 2 4
May-20 5,590 5,650 5,472 5,500 5,564 5,562 -2 577,208 393,054
Jun-20 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 8
Jul-20 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,580 5,538 -42 2 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,238 5,276 5,238 -38 0 2
Sep-20 5,406 5,454 5,308 5,330 5,392 5,392 0 6,856 28,834
Oct-20 5,504 5,504 5,504 5,504 5,486 5,504 18 2 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,534,360 lots, or 97.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,334 6,334 6,334 0 0 0
Dec-19 – – – 6,284 6,284 6,284 0 0 4
Jan-20 6,382 6,410 6,324 6,342 6,342 6,368 26 1,187,106 822,562
Mar-20 – – – 6,362 6,362 6,362 0 0 706
May-20 6,304 6,328 6,224 6,240 6,280 6,280 0 328,946 437,628
Jul-20 6,414 6,414 6,272 6,272 6,330 6,346 16 6 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,128 6,114 6,128 14 0 0
Sep-20 6,230 6,258 6,168 6,180 6,224 6,212 -12 18,302 123,338
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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