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The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly


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The soy complex is fighting on many fronts. The good in the market at present is that the domestic carry has fallen to a more reasonable level. What happens going forward will dictate if we have a 300 carry or a 500 carry. This is important because the market is probably in a range if we stay around 400-450 mil bu in carry over. The Chinese demand story can assist this story for the positive if purchases continue. The bad in the market is as follows in my opinion. The Global production remains more than ample. The Global carry while in decline is still much larger than the last few years. In addition it is projected that the southern hemisphere will make advances in production and add back to the global numbers. This could continue to compete with the US for exports. The potentially Ugly part of the market is that China may not need to buy more beans than the projections. This limits growth for beans and would be longer term negative. This is being fueled by the African Swine Fever that is still not contained in China,and is advancing in neighboring countries. These are big trends that change slowly. It has been my thought for some time that the oilshare will make gains,not only due to the global demand for vegoils,but due to the reduction in needs for protein from the above mentioned ASF. The market has alot to digest. This could create uncertainty and lead to a difficult choppy market. As always these are offered as my thoughts and a quantified approach is advised.

John Walsh,
President, Walsh Trading
312-208-8836
800-993-5449
jwalsh@walshtrading.com
walshtrading.com



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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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