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Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express


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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or info@bluelinefutures.com

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E-mini S&P (December)

Last weeks close:Settled at 2988.25, down 9.75 on Friday and up 17.50 on the week

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks are battling off a wave of weakness following Fridays open and are set to start the week on a positive note. An upbeat narrative on U.S and China trade has mounted hopes of an interim deal in November, broadly boosting sentiment. China lauded substantial progress on the trade front which comes on the heels of slowing growth. Fridays data showed GDP at 6.0%. Although this was already below the 6.1% expected and at nearly 30-year lows, some analysts believe growth was much worse than the headline read. The IMF lowered their 2020 forecast for Chinas GDP to 5.8% last week. President Trump continues to echo the Phase-1 deal that would halt additional tariffs and force China to purchase $50 billion a year in agricultural products, saying it should be ready to sign at the G-20 next month.

JPMorgan kicked earnings season got off last week and traded to a fresh record high, heres how to play more upside with limited risk.A strong start last week set a positive tone as the calendar heats up. We see 40% of the Dow and 25% of the S&P report this week but today is fairly quiet.Bill Baruch spoke with CNBCs Trading Nation on Friday to discuss two standout reports.Halliburton reported a 32% drop in quarterly profit this morning, but the numbers were broadly inline with estimates of 0.34/share. The stock is down nearly 1% premarket in an otherwise quiet earnings morning. On Friday, Boeing lost 6.79%, Amazon 1.68% and Microsoft 1.63%; each report this week.

Technicals:Fridays sharp slip broke below two layers of key support for the S&P but certainly proved to be a buying opportunity as price action is nearly 1% from the 2975 low this morning. For the S&P, we did not have a major three-star support until 2951.25-2953 but the NQ has major three-star support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to receive our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary level emailed each morning.

Crude Oil (December)

Last weeks close:Settled at 53.87, down 0.16 on Friday and down 0.91 on the week

Fundamentals:Crude Oil is slipping, paring all gains post Wednesdays EIA report. Deteriorating global growth echoes the U.S-China trade war and without additional supply cuts by OPEC+, Crude Oil finds itself a casualty. Headlines signaling that OPEC+ could consider such in December helped lift sentiment into Friday. Estimates making their rounds signal that Chinas growth was much worse than the 6.0% reported and could be much worse than the 5.8% expected by the IMF in 2020. At this point, jawboning each an interim trade deal and additional cuts was unable to lift the tape above any crucial levels of resistance. We remain Bearish in Bias targeting $47-48 over the intermediate-term.

Technicals:A healthy move into last Friday has fully dissipated after failing at major three-star resistance at 54.70-55.00. Price action clung to major three-star support at 53.71-53.93 into settlement but the weakness was already showing. We believe the bears to be back in the drivers seat below our pivot of 53.71-53.93 which also aligns settlement and our momentum indicator. A close below ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to receive our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary level emailed each morning.

Gold (December)

Last weeks close:Settled at 1494.1, down 4.2

Fundamentals:Gold has done well in fighting off waves of weakness. The metal has focused more on a weaker U.S Dollar than rising Treasury yields. In fact, the U.S 30-year Bond is making a new low in price on the swing this morning. The economic calendar is quiet today and a speech from Fed Governor Bowman at 10:40 am CT stands out. Otherwise, traders must focus on the gyrating U.S-China and Brexit headlines that gyrate both the rates and currencies.

Technicals:Gold is holding ground at and above our pivot but has been unable to chew through first key resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to receive our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary level emailed each morning.



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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results


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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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