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Ag Thoughts

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There is a bit of opportunity at present in my opinion. The market presents opportunities at times that need to be seized. As we have seen a roller coaster over the last couple years from profit to loss quickly in the Ag sector. I believe the lower end of prices for both beans and corn have moved up from a macro sense. It is my belief we could put a high in within the next two weeks. The fundamentals IMO support a move in nov to the 955-965 level potentially. That would be an opportunity to sell both old and new crop soy. The corn IMO can move to 412 level basis dec. Like the soy, these levels present opportunity to make sales. The domestic balance sheet has moved to a more historic carry level. This has helped pull the lower end of the ranges up. What can limit the upside a bit is the large global numbers. There is stiff competition on the horizon. It should be said, however, that any major weather concerns, or a rebalancing of the Chinese corn stocks have the ability to turn the markets for the positive. The markets at present await confirmation of some new Chinese purchases. This could be the catalyst for the next opportunity. A sleeper here remains bean oil, in my opinion. The long term fundamentals could spell much higher prices. As always these are thoughts. It is essential to quantify your risk. The most important part of a successful strategy is understanding the risk.

Be Well,

John Walsh, President Walsh Trading

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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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