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Today's Playbook - Blue Line Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2991.50, down 6.25

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks are set to open higher, getting an early morning boost on a Brexit deal between the U.K and EU. The orderly exit would take place October 31st but still faces hurdles. EU leaders are expected to push along the framework today but the U.K House of Commons still poses a question and furthermore, the Northern Ireland Democratic Union Party has said they dont support the deal. Headlines detailing progress or setbacks will move the meter ahead of the weekend. On the U.S and China trade front, we must keep a close eye on any developments due to the bill passed by the U.S House supporting Hong Kong protestors.

Earnings continue to be a bright spot for this market. Netflix crushed expectations yesterday and gained more than 10% immediately after the release. Morgan Stanley followed a string of healthy bank earnings this morning by beating estimates headlined with profits driven by bond trading. The stock is up 4% premarket. Honeywell and Philip Morris are both in the green after reporting this morning.

The economic data continues to be questionable though. U.S Retail Sales, which has been a bright spot much of the year, whiffed yesterday by contracting. Philly Fed came in lower than expected this morning with Jobless Claims higher and housing data mixed. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 am CT. Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Evans emphasized no more rate cuts are needed this year, however, said the committee must be flexible and ready by keeping an open mind. The odds of a cut later this month have mounted to 90%, however, a second 25 basis point cut in December has dissipated to a 25% probability.

Technicals:Price action is very firm this morning and looking to extend gains early. With the S&P building major three-star support at 2991.50-2992 aligning settlement with our momentum indicator and already testing 3008.50, continued elevation above support should chew through this major three-star resistance level and target record highs. This is not solely driven by the S&P as the NQ is in a breakout above major three-star resistance which has now become major three-star support and aligns with our momentum indicator at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to get our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and levels emailed each morning.

Crude Oil (November)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 53.36, up 0.55

Fundamentals:Crude Oil struggled against our strong technical resistance yesterday upon strength and this led to profit selling from longs ahead of inventory data. The private API survey showed a massive build of 10.45 mb of Crude. The overall risk appetite in broader markets is strong this morning given the Brexit deal and earnings, however, inventories will be the major focus here. Analyst EIA expectations are for +2.878 mb Crude, -1.381 mb Gasoline and -2.375 mb Distillates. Yes, last nights API raised the bearish bar, meaning something in line with EIA could be treated as supportive to the market. Although we are cautious heading into inventories, we remain Bearish in Bias. Dont forget, November options also expire today.

Technicals:Crude Oil is lower after failing to hold major three-star resistance at 53.55-53.69 yesterday with a high of 53.75. This pocket will remain a major three-star, but traders do want to be cautious given a move again upwards towards here is likely following a less bearish or bullish EIA report. Price action has also struggled to chew through first key support, but we continue to believe that moment is coming at ....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to get our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and levels emailed each morning.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1494, up 10.5

Fundamentals:Despite rising rates around the world due to headway on Brexit, weaker than expected data in the U.S has helped lift Gold. Furthermore, that progress on Brexit has supported the Pound and Euro, weakening the Dollar and also buoying the metal. Expectations are locking in a rate cut later this month after Retail Sales, Philly Fed and now Industrial Production all missed. Equity markets are eyeing record highs and in the near-term that momentum could be the only thing holding Gold back from really gaining out above the $1500 mark.

Technicals:Gold is hugging first key resistance while sticking its neck out above. This level combined with second key resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to get our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and levels emailed each morning.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

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Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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