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Daily Grain & Cotton Commentary

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Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures saw another round of profit taking yesterday, spilling into the overnight and early morning session. In yesterdays report we wrote: We remain optimistic on prices but continue to feel a pullback/cleanse would be healthy for the market, especially during a week where there arent a lot of flashy headlines.. The lack of headlines has us leaning on technicals for the remainder of the week.

Technicals: The market has pulled back into our pivot pocket of 390-392 , this was previously resistance and now becomes support. If you had reduced at the end of last week or Monday morning, this would be the spot to consider getting that long exposure back on. If the bulls cannot defend this pocket on a closing basis, we could see a retest to the bottom end of the recent range, 377-381 .

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 400-402 ***, 412 -417 ****

Pivot: 390-392

Support: 377-381 ****, 363-366***

Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: November soybean futures retreated yesterday on the back of broad-based selling in grain markets and a poor crush report. Yesterdays NOPA crush report came in at 152.566 million bushels, about 10 million bushels less than expectations. Like corn, we remain optimistic on prices but would welcome a deeper pullback in a week with little news scheduled.

Technicals: The market staged in inside day, trading within the previous days range and finishing near our pivot pocket from 936 -938 . If the bulls cannot defend this pocket, we could see a run closer to 920, a spot that we would see value to the buy-side. Higher lows and higher highs have been the trend and we expect that continue over the intermediate term.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 948-950****

Pivot: 936 -938

Support: 920-924**, 899-906 ****, 879 -882 ***

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat peeled off lower yesterday as broad-based selling in grains was unavoidable. If corn can stabilize, we would not be surprised to see wheat find its footing too. With little new news on the wire, our focus will continue to be on money flow and technicals.

Technicals: The market pulled back into our 4-star support pocket, previously resistance. We have had this listed as 500-506 . If youre bullish the market, this is the area to consider adding long exposure. If youre bearish the market, this is the pocket to reduce short exposure in. Higher lows and higher highs have been the trend, we would not be surprised to see that continue.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 515 **, 525 -531 ****

Support: 500-506 ****, 483-486 ***, 476 ****

Kansas City Wheat (December)

Technicals: The market has pulled back into first support, we have defined that sas 415 -420, we see value at these prices so long the market doesnt breakdown below. A failure to defend support could open the door for a run at the bottom end of the recent range, closer to $4.00.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias:Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 428-432 ****, 437-442**

Support: 415 -420**, 397-400***, 380*

Cotton (December)

Fundamentals: December cotton futures finished yesterdays session on higher ground on the back of technical support and concerns that weather could deteriorate quality as we work our way through the harvest, which is currently 32% complete. Any positive trade headlines would be a positive for cotton, but we dont expect any thing of substance in the very near term.

Technicals: Cotton futures managed to hold our pivot pocket through yesterdays session which bodes well for the bull camp in the near term, leaving the door open for a run at 65.00-65.85. If money flow softens up and we break back below yesterdays low that would neutralize our bias, as it could open the door for pressure down below 60.00.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias:Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 65.00-65.85****, 68.35-68.60***

Pivot: 62.50-62.91

Support: 59.58-60.79***, 56.59-57.55****

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About the author

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.



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